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Despite the launch of the impeachment proceedings against US President Donald Trump, the USD index, the US stock market, and Treasury yields have shown unexpected strength.
Apparently, markets doubt that the Senate, who are controlled by Republicans, will support the idea of removing the head of the White House from power. In addition, Washington-Beijing trade talks are on the nose. The latter gets one more reason to spend time and this is not necessary for anyone, especially investors.
US assets also benefited from a statement by Donald Trump that a trade deal with China could be concluded earlier than many believed.
Amid this news, the USD/JPY pair jumped sharply after a four-day decline.
JPMorgan Chase analysts predict that the pair will rise to around 110 by the end of the year.
"The last three months of the year are seasonally weak for the yen. This year, this period still coincides with a large repayment of Japanese government bonds. Considering that the yield in the Land of the Rising Sun is still close to record low levels, we expect that local investors will send most of the proceeds from the repayment of bonds to foreign assets, "they said.
According to some estimates, Japan should repay state bonds in the amount of 24.3 trillion yen (about 226 billion dollars) by the end of the year.
"Even if the Fed cuts the interest rate one or two more times, the yield on US treasury bonds will remain attractive to Japanese investors," the JPMorgan said.
Meanwhile, the global economy is on the verge of a new trade war.
According to Bloomberg, the WTO has confirmed that EU subsidies for the Airbus giant violate international trade rules and is ready to allow the United States to levy duties worth $7-8 billion in European imports. Brussels intends to respond.
News on this subject put pressure on the single European currency.
When competitors are weak, the dollar has no choice but to go up. Greenback is steadily gaining ground despite the growing political risks in the United States.
According to Fed President Dallas Robert Kaplan, the United States can skate on the ice of a freezing global economy with strong consumer spending and the job market. In turn, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, does not see the need to further reduce the rate on federal funds.
The difference in the economic growth of the US and the eurozone, as well as doubts about the continuation of monetary expansion by the Fed, propelled the EUR/USD pair to the lower border of the short-term consolidation range at 1.093-1.1095. It is assumed that her breakthrough will increase the chances of continuing movement in the direction of 1.087 and 1.08. However, the attack of the "bears" is unlikely to take place in one breath since it may take some time to prepare for the assault.
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