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Today, traders will focus on such currency pairs as USD / CAD and USD / JPY. Canada, in turn, will release a report on consumer inflation, and the United States will publish a measure of retail sales. "Loonie" managed to resist the fall in prices due to strong fundamental factors. Last week, the country released optimistic data on the labor market. Now, to stay afloat, we need equally rosy indicators for rising consumer prices. Judging by the report of business activity in the services sector from IVEY, which reflected a significant jump in prices, inflation data in Canada should exceed the forecast.
It is worth noting that oil has moved to growth today. This, in particular, is due to the fact that market participants have high hopes for a possible Brexit deal and for signals from OPEC and its allies that further supply restrictions may be possible.
However, commodity price growth remains limited due to continued concerns about the global economic downturn. According to analysts, any transaction that avoids a "hard" scenario or an inactive Brexit should stimulate economic growth and, in turn, increase the value of black gold.
Due to the increased attention to Brexit as well as to the fact that a little more than two weeks are left before leaving the EU, the volatility literally haunts the pound. The British currency almost does not respond to macro statistics, since the most important now is the political background.
According to British sources, Brexit negotiations are resuming today in Brussels after a "constructive" dialogue that lasted until late at night. Also, on Wednesday, the "Briton" retreated from a 5-month high. Thus, the GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.2670. Rumors appeared in the market that the UK parliament would not ratify the deal. The reason for such concerns was a post on Twitter by ITV commentator Robert Peston. He wrote that the Democratic Union Party of Northern Ireland would not support the agreement, which means that the chances of approving the deal are very low. Peston wrote, citing a source in the government.
It is noted that if the Brexit transaction were approved before the end of the current week, the pound could grow by 3-5% above the previous day's highs of 1.28. Due to this, some market analysts expect the pound at 1.30 if the deal is agreed before the summit on Thursday.
The USD / JPY pair rose to the level of 109 during the night. Slow wage growth is a kind of harbinger of a decline in consumer demand. According to experts, retail sales in the US slowed from September 0.4% to 0.3%. If the report becomes even more negative, the USD / JPY rate will be subject to the most severe pressure. In addition, the market will increase expectations again about easing the Fed's policy at the next meeting.
On Wednesday, the Beige Book will be published. The Fed regions are likely to report a slowdown.
Regarding forecasts for the growth of USD / JPY, reputable banks do not believe in the development of this enterprise. Strategists advise selling the pair, in their opinion, a short position remains an attractive and undervalued hedge in case of further weakening of the US economy or a new round of trade war.
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