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After it became known that London and Brussels agreed on Brexit, not only the pound came into motion. As the whole of Europe could suffer in the event of Foggy Albion's disorderly exit from the alliance, the euro also received support.
Thanks to the improvement of the political landscape in the United Kingdom, the EUR/USD was able to gain a foothold above 1.11.
In January-September, the euro fell against the US dollar by more than 5% amid a slowdown in the eurozone economy, the reasons for which lie in trade conflicts and Brexit.
The divorce process is expensive for the UK, however, the EU also feels pain from the disruption of economic relations. Germany is on the verge of recession, and the government is not tired of reducing the growth forecasts of national GDP. It is expected that in 2020, the indicator will increase not by 1.5%, but by 1%.
Due to the high share of exports in GDP, the eurozone is among the regions most affected by trade wars. The reduction of external demand primarily from China worsens the position of export-oriented European companies. In this regard, the news about the slowdown of the Chinese economy to 6% in the third quarter (the worst indicator in the last three decades) is negative for the euro. At the same time, in September, Chinese retail sales and industrial production were pleased, and progress in trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing gives hope for a settlement of disputes.
Due to the weakening of political and trade risks in Europe, Asia, and America, the bulls on the euro received a green light. At the same time, investors continue to get rid of the dollar due to disappointing statistics in the United States. In September, US industrial production in annual terms for the first time since 2016 went into negative territory, which increases the chances of easing the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in October. It is noteworthy that interest in the options of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which suggests a reduction in the Fed interest rate to zero and lower by the end of 2021 – 2022, is constantly growing. Since September last year, the number of such contracts has increased from 132 thousand to 1200 thousand.
If the British Parliament approves the draft agreement with the EU on Brexit, the EUR/USD pair can easily reach the area of 1.117 – 1.119. Otherwise, we expect a rollback to 1.1110.
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