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GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues the sluggish process of falling towards the correction level of 61.8% (1.2836). At the same time, the pair's quotes continue to remain inside the narrowing channel, which eloquently indicates the absence of a certain mood among traders. Also, a bullish divergence is brewing in the CCI indicator, which may still allow bull traders to resume growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.3044). However, I recommend now to wait for the pound/dollar pair to exit the designated channel and only then return to the market.
Since very little news continues to come from the UK, and the deputies today are sent on another holiday, this time related to the preparation for the elections on December 12, the pound shows extremely low activity. Neither economic reports from America nor rumors that the US and China may soon sign the first agreement in the framework of an entire trade deal help. Probably, traders are looking for more favorable entry points, waiting for a more favorable time to enter the market. After all, in fact, after the completion of the growth of the pound on October 21, the pair stands in one place.
Perhaps a meeting of the Bank of England will help traders tomorrow, but now we can assume that it will be mundane and passing. The Bank of England, unlike the ECB, is in no hurry to use all available tools (meaning a rate cut). The key rate remains at 0.75%, and its reduction, which is logical in the conditions of very weak statistics, should be expected not before the time when the situation with Brexit will clear up. That is, Mark Carney and the Monetary Committee are saving this most effective remedy for the most extreme case. After all, even the possibility of Brexit "No Deal" is not completely excluded now. The election results are unknown. Thus, the Bank of England is likely to show restrained rhetoric and no changes will occur. According to many experts, the pound is not ready to respond to the actions of the Bank of England, Mark Carney's speeches, economic reports. It is only interested in one thing – Brexit and the probability of Brexit "No Deal". Therefore, any message that increases the chances of the UK leaving the European Union without an agreement will greatly reduce the demand for the pound.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The pound/dollar pair maintains growth prospects in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.3044), while it is above the level of 61.8%. Today, I expect the pair to either rebound from the lower line of the channel or the level of 61.8%. If this does not happen, the bear traders will be activated, and the pound will again be subject to sales with a target of 50.0% (1.2668). The information background for the pair today will be empty.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
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