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During yesterday's speech in the US Congress, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the current position of the regulator on monetary policy will remain appropriate as long as the incoming information on the state of the US economy is in line with Central Bank forecasts.
If earlier the "bulls" on EUR / USD still had hope that the Fed would continue to follow the lead of the White House owner Donald Trump and would not limit himself to three interest rate cuts, then the head of the Fed dispelled them the day before. He said that the very low-interest rates that take place abroad are not practical for the American economy. According to him, negative rates arise when the growth rate of GDP and inflation is very low.
In the first half of this year, economic growth in the United States was 2.5%, and in the third quarter, it slowed to 1.9%.
"Moderate growth in the third quarter is due to the aftermath of the strike by the United Automobile Workers Union at General Motors Corporation. Also, this serves as an indication of a decrease in total investment, which is associated with low economic growth rates abroad and with trade problems," J. Powell said.
In October, consumer prices in the United States rose by 1.8% year-on-year after rising by 1.7% a month earlier, and core inflation accelerated by 2.3%.
"In the future, we expect steady growth in the national economy, a stable situation on the labor market and an inflation rate close to the target of 2%," the chairman of the Federal Reserve said.
The US economy remains resilient to slowing global demand. If we add to this the termination of the cycle of preventive easing of monetary policy by the Fed, the decline of EUR/USD looks quite logical.
In October, the single European currency strengthened against the greenback amid talk of a slowdown in US GDP growth due to the fading effect of fiscal stimulus, as well as hopes that the eurozone will be able to withstand the onslaught of headwinds, including in the form of trade wars. In November, after the statements of the head of the White House, Donald Trump, about a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese products (in the case of non-signing of a trade deal by Beijing), the market returned to the previous fears.
The question is, why then, against an unfavorable background for itself, the main currency pair does not slide into the abyss? It seems that investors still believe that Washington and Beijing will sign a trade agreement, and the euro will be able to cling to if not at $1.1000, then at the support level of $1.0965.
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