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On the last day of the week, after a two-day weakening of positive sentiment regarding the prospects for a new trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, the market situation is gradually changing in a positive direction.
It can be recalled that the lack of details on the negotiation process during the speech of D. Trump at the New York Economic Club in the markets raised concerns that the tension between the parties is still quite significant, which may interfere with the conclusion of the agreement. On this wave, during these two days, there was an increase in demand for protective assets among investors. US Treasury bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were in demand. However, despite the change of mood, this demand remained not so strong and is characterized only by the desire to insure against a possible negativity.
Today, the market situation is starting to change already in the wake of another positive comment by the economic adviser to the US president. L. Kudlow, who said last Thursday that the United States and China are "approaching" a trade deal, citing very constructive negotiations with Beijing to end the 16-month trade war. "We're getting closer," he said at an event at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. "The mood music is pretty good, and it wasn't always like that."
Of course, due to this statement, the yield on the treasuries turned up, gold weakened in price, and the USD/JPY and USD/CHF pairs began to grow.
Thus, we believe that if the mood in the markets does not worsen by some regular pitfall today, then we can expect a reversal in the markets in the direction of demand for risky assets - stocks of companies. The dollar will grow again in relation to all major currencies.
Forecast of the day:
EUR/USD is trading above 1.1015. We believe that it is possible to sell the pair with local targets 1.0985 and 1.0965 after its decline below 1.1015.
Gold on the spot demonstrates a local reversal downward in the wake of a change in market sentiment following a speech on Thursday by economic adviser to President D. Trump L. Kudlow. If they persist and gold falls below the level of 1461.00, we can expect a continuation of the fall to 1444.20, and then to 1438.00.
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