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Traders could not decide on their moods once again, so macroeconomic data that in Europe and in the United States did not only turned out to be not as expected, but also had a positive character. Thus, the second estimate of the GDP of the euro area for the third quarter showed that the economic growth rate did not slow down from 1.2% to 1.1%, but remained unchanged. Moreover, a preliminary estimate of German GDP showed an acceleration of economic growth from 0.3% to 0.5%. And since the largest economy in the euro area is accelerating, that is, hope for improvement in the whole of Europe. In addition, inflation in France, although it decreased, but not from 0.9% to 0.7%, but only to 0.8%. In Spain, as expected, it remained unchanged. However, not only in Europe the data came out better than forecasts, but also in the United States. In general, the suspicions were confirmed caused by a sudden increase in inflation, which data on producer prices will show a significantly better result. Thus the growth rate of producer prices slowed down from 1.4% to 1.1%, but we must remember that they predicted a slowdown to 0.9%. The truth was the data on applications for unemployment benefits is disappointing, the total number of which increased by 4 thousand, although they expected a reduction of just the same 4 thousand. This happened solely due to the increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, by 14 thousand. Meanwhile, the value of the same number of repeated applications decreased by 10 thousand. It was predicted that the number of initial applications will increase by 4 thousand, and the number of primary applications will decrease by 8 thousand.
Today, the first thing you need to pay attention to is inflation in Europe, which is expected to drop from 0.8% to 0.7%. However, if you recall yesterday's inflation data in France, there is every reason to believe that the data for the entire euro area will be slightly better and inflation will remain unchanged. In addition, inflation data is also published in Italy, where it should remain just at the same level, at 0.3%.
Inflation (Europe):
At the same time, no less significant data will be published in the United States, although the expectations on it are not so joyful. The fact is that retail sales are expected to slow down from 4.1% to 3.8%. Of course, the recent increase in inflation somewhat compensates for the decline in consumer activity, but the scale of a possible slowdown in sales is somewhat larger than the increase in inflation. Moreover, data on industrial production are still being published, the decline of which should accelerate from -0.1% to -0.4%. Thus, there are no reasons for optimism.
Retail Sales (United States):
The pair EUR/USD continues to fluctuate within the psychological level of 1.1000, showing low volatility leaps on the way. So the recovery process, with respect to the elongated correction, ran into a subsequent fulcrum, where the breakdown process was delayed for a week, having stagnation as a fact.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see a gradual decrease from the resistance point of 1.1180, where the coordinates of 1.1080 have already been broken, subsequently lowering the quote to 1.1000.
It is likely to assume that the ambiguous mood will continue in the market, where the fluctuation boundaries will be in the region of 1.1000 / 1.1035. The tactics of working with existing stagnation exclude intra-trade, due to low profitability and high risk. Thus, the trading method for the breakdown of established boundaries seems to be the most suitable strategy.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider long positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.1035, not a puncture shadow.
- We consider short positions in case of maintaining downward interest and fixing lower than 1.0990, not a puncture shadow.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see mixed interest in terms of minute and hour intervals, precisely due to the very ambiguity caused by the level of 1.1000. In terms of daily periods, we have a constant downward mood.
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