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The fatigue of investors from the situation in the negotiation process between the United States and China seems to have reached its peak. The uncertainty about the development of events around this topic, produced by US President D. Trump, indicates that, most likely, he wants to not only agree with an economic competitor, but to destroy it.
The struggle is going on, as they say, on all fronts - both in raising trade duties and in inspiring dissatisfaction with the "fifth column" in Taiwan by the Chinese authorities. After recent flattering promises and sweet words that the conclusion of the "Phase 1" agreement is close, Trump announced on Tuesday that if China does not agree to its terms, if it does not conclude a "deal that he likes," he will simply "increase duties even higher."
On this wave, the American stock market, which received support, was blown away by the end of trading. The treasury yields continued to fall, but the dollar, oddly enough, received support. Thus, the ICE dollar index continues to rise today in the Asian trading session, despite a drop in the yield on government bonds of the US Treasury. This dynamics can be explained by investors' expectations that the minutes of the last October meeting of the Federal Reserve published today will confirm the course taken earlier by the regulator to suspend further reduction in interest rates. Thus, we believe that if the minutes confirms this, then the dollar will continue to strengthen locally with respect to a basket of major currencies, although its overall dynamics will be expressed in consolidation without a specific direction.
The same ambiguous situation as in the currency exchange market is also observed in the oil market, where there is a complete lack of certainty about the prospects for future demand, which is tightly tied, on the one hand, to the topic of US-Chinese trade negotiations, and on the other, publication of data on oil reserves and petroleum products in the States.
At the same time, quotations of "black gold" have actually been moving sideways for the second month, fully reflecting this link. Due to this, pessimism is growing more and more on the market, and expectations of falling prices are rising, as the ongoing trade war strikes after blows to the economies of China and the USA, and the first, according to economic statistics, is clearly suffering more.
Assessing the overall picture on the market, we believe that the current state of affairs will continue indefinitely.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD is trading below the level of 1.1075. The price failed to gain a foothold above this level. Thus, we believe that it will continue to decline to 1.1000 after the publication of the positive for the dollar content of the Fed's minutes.
The USD/CAD pair is trading above 1.3265 amid falling crude oil prices and expectations of the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting, as well as the publication of data on consumer inflation in Canada. If inflation in Canada does not recover, and oil prices continue to fall after the release of data from the US Department of Energy and the minutes is positive for the dollar, then the pair will continue to rise to 1.3380. Otherwise, the pair may fall to 1.3200 after crossing the level of 1.3265.
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