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Yesterday, all the focus was reduced to the minutes of the Federal Reserve from the October meeting, in which traders wanted to find at least some guidance on the future of interest rates in the United States. However, the report showed nothing new.
Central Bank leaders saw a significant risk that the slowdown in global GDP growth will harm the US economy, and therefore, made a reduction in interest rates as insurance, thereby maintaining a low rate of inflation.
Many participants noted the improvement in spending in interest-rate sensitive sectors and agreed that weak global growth and subdued price growth around the world are a source of risk to the outlook for inflation in the United States. Forecasts for GDP growth for the second half of this year were revised down slightly, but this did not lead to a real weakening of the US dollar against several world currencies.
The Federal Reserve did not rule out changes in monetary policy, which are possible in case of significant changes in the US economic outlook. The core inflation forecast for 2019 has been revised down, as well as the forecast for inflation for 2020. Annual inflation is expected to fall short of the 2.0% target until 2022.
An important point is also that all the leaders in October of this year supported the plan to inject liquidity while saying that they are not ready to adhere to long-term plans to ensure market liquidity, which means a return to the program of monetary stimulation of the economy. However, the central bank is considering the possibility of new repurchase transactions or the creation of a permanent mechanism for such operations, which is different from the quantitative easing program.
Today, traders' attention will be focused on a similar report, but from the European Central Bank, which does not have many tools to change monetary policy, as interest rates are at zero and negative levels. Most likely, we will not see any hints of further interest rate cuts in the report either, but many economists predict that next year the ECB may make two more cuts in the deposit rate, 10 basis points each. Let me remind you that the rate is currently at -0.50%.
An important value in the protocols will be the assessment of the eurozone GDP growth rates for the coming years. If economists reconsider their expectations for the worse, the ECB may announce an increase in asset purchases as part of a quantitative easing repurchase program in the future.
Yesterday's speeches of the Fed representatives were not distinguished by their originality.
Lael Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, said that trade uncertainty has put significant pressure on the US economy, but this did not affect growth rates in the coming years, which will remain above the trend. Brainard also noted that before lowering interest rates further, it is necessary to assess how the recent actions of the Fed have affected the outlook for the economy.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The bullish scenario can still be implemented only after it is possible to overcome the maximum of 1.1090. This will continue the upward correction to the highs of 1.1110 and 1.1140. However, we should not exclude the possibility of a downward correction, as the breakthrough of the intermediate support of 1.1050, which is now approaching the trading instrument, can push the pair to the lower border of the upward channel in the area of 1.1020.
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