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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair showed low interest in changing the current picture on the chart. Over the past few days, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair are squeezed into a very narrow price range, and traders do not have the strength and desire to leave it. Thus, the pair remains above the correction level of 38.2% (1.1066), which, on the one hand, preserves the probability of further growth of quotations. However, the downward trend range remains in effect, which means that a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo levels of 50.0% (1.1030) and 61.8% (1.0995) remains more preferable. At least until the pair closes above the trend range, this is the scenario I expect.
Trading on the EUR/USD pair is now taking place under the flags of the trade war between China and the United States and the minutes of the Fed meeting. Although neither the first nor the second topic has any impact on the movement of the pair, traders persistently continue to analyze these events, trying to find dividends and useful information for themselves. Although, from my point of view, nothing worthy of attention in these topics is happening now. The trade war has already escalated several times, despite assurances from the parties of the "success" of the negotiations. Therefore, any next statement by Donald Trump or a representative of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, saying about "progress in the negotiations" causes only a smile. Who cares if there is progress in the negotiations or not, if it does not affect the US dollar, it is not reflected in the concrete signatures of specific agreements between the countries. Even the probability of signing an agreement in the "first phase" or the "hundred and first phase" is not affected. This week it became clear that the parties are very far from signing the agreement, Trump crumbled in new threats to impose duties if Beijing delays the signing of the agreement, which is beneficial to America, and China begins to worry about US interference in the internal affairs of the country and, in particular, Hong Kong, where mass protests and riots continue since the end of July. The US government is going to pass two laws "on human rights and democracy in Hong Kong", the first of which obliges Hong Kong to annually confirm a sufficient level of autonomy from China to maintain its special status in trade with the US. The second - ban the sale of tear gas, stun guns and other crowd deterrents to Hong Kong police. China regards these bills as an immediate threat from the US and warns of drastic retaliatory measures if the laws are passed. As you can see, relations between the US and China are only heating up. But how does this affect the exchange rate of the US currency? No way.
Also, China refuses to buy agricultural products in America for $50 billion annually, and America is not going to cancel all already imposed duties on Chinese imports under the agreement in the "first phase". What progress can be made towards signing an agreement between the parties?
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
On November 21, traders will again try to turn the euro/dollar pair down, as the graphic picture suggests this option. Thus, I recommend buying the euro currency only if the bull traders execute a close above the upper line of the trend range. Otherwise, a rebound from the upper line of the corridor or closing below the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the US currency and will allow the pair to sell with a target of Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1030). The information background will remain empty today.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of October 1, 2019, and October 21, 2019.
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