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The parliamentary elections in Britain, the meetings of the Fed and the European Central Bank, as well as the answer to the question of whether the US will impose new duties against China from December 15 - are the factors that drove the euro and the dollar throughout 2019. The main currency pair will have a very stormy week, after which emotions are likely to calm down and investors will begin to balance their positions, preparing for the Christmas holidays and the New Year. From December 9 to 15, their focus will be on monetary policy, trade wars, and Brexit.
The futures market gives almost 100% probability of maintaining the federal funds rate in December and expects monetary expansion only in September 2020. Bloomberg experts do believe that until 2021, the Fed will not make adjustments to monetary policy, no matter how much Donald Trump calls for a rate cut and QE resuscitation. At the same time, the story of how at the end of 2018 Jerome Powell woke the S&P 500 bears with his careless phrases about the remoteness of the federal funds rate from the neutral level is still fresh in the memory of investors. The probability that the Fed chairman will again step on the same rake is small.
A much more interesting event is the ECB meeting. First, Christine Lagarde will talk about her position in the field of politics. Second, finally, after the resignation of Mario Draghi, the "hawks" of the Governing Council can feel the freedom and openly declare their position. The fact that inside the European Central Bank dissatisfaction with the policy of negative rates is growing as evidenced by yesterday's "dovish" speech of one of the head of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco. He argues that he would rather expand QE than further reduce the deposit rate.
Dynamics of ECB bond purchases under QE
In my opinion, if Christine Lagarde pays much attention to the side effects of the ECB's monetary stimulus policy, the markets will consider her a centrist, and not the "dove" that they imagined as Mario Draghi. As a result, the euro may continue to rally against major world currencies. Moreover, the support for the EUR/USD bulls is likely to be provided by the results of the parliamentary elections in Britain. According to opinion polls, conservatives will win, which increases the likelihood of an orderly Brexit and eliminates the uncertainty associated with the divorce of Albion with the EU.
Likely, the States will not impose new duties against China from December 15. Donald Trump believes that the negotiations are going well, the parties agree on the details of the agreed contracts. However, the end of the trade war is positive for the euro on the medium and long-term investment horizon. In the short term, support is at risk of receiving US stock indices and the dollar.
Technically
Technically, the exit of EUR/USD quotes outside the descending trading channel increases the risks of implementing targets by 88.6% and 78.6% on the "double top" and Hartley patterns. They correspond to the marks of 1.12 and 1,129. While the quotes are above 1.1055-1.106, the situation in the pair is under the control of the bulls.
EUR/USD, the daily chart
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