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Despite a slight improvement in sentiment, fear still rules the ball in the financial market. Amid expectations of the end of the US-China trade conflict, as well as the recovery of the eurozone economy, investors are interested in buying the euro, but the slightest negative forces them to curtail the longs for EUR. In particular, the decline in industrial production in Germany by 5.3% in October in annual terms has raised doubts about the fact that the locomotive of the eurozone will be able to avoid a recession. Bloomberg Economics estimates industry weakness will subtract 0.6% from quarterly GDP. A similar situation exists in relation to the greenback. Investors are ready to sell it due to concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, which will force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
The USD index lost almost a figure over the first four days of the past trading week amid disappointing data from the United States, and only a strong report on the US labor market for November published on Friday was able to somewhat offset this decline.
Last month, employment in the non-agricultural sector of the United States grew by 266 thousand, due to which the average monthly rate for September-November increased to 205 thousand. Of course, this is slightly lower than in 2018 (223 thousand), but it is still impressive. Unemployment fell to 3.5%, having been at its lowest level since 1969. Hourly average wages rose 3.1% year on year, surpassing forecasts.
Skeptics argue that there is no guarantee that low unemployment and rising wages will help boost inflation. They believe that even an increase in employment by 500 thousand is unlikely to force the Fed to talk about increasing interest rates.
Meanwhile, a strong report on the state of the US labor market led to a revision of the country's GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter upward. In particular, the leading indicator from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank signals that the US economy will expand by 2% in October-December. They were talking about an increase of 1.5% prior to the November release on employment.
The euro came under pressure due to a strong report on the US labor market along with weak statistics from Germany.
However, fans of the single European currency are in no hurry to raise the white flag. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to tell investors anything new at the end of the last FOMC meeting this year. But ECB President Christine Lagarde may be a much smaller dove than her predecessor, Mario Draghi. It is assumed that the ECB will not yet make adjustments to monetary policy. This, along with the confident victory of Conservatives in the parliamentary elections in the UK, could support the euro.
Despite the fact that the bulls on EUR/USD have no serious trump cards to confidently move to 1.1500, they are quite capable of competing for support at 1.1055, 1.1000 and 1.0960.
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