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GBP/USD - 4H.
The GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency on December 11 after the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator and began the process of falling towards the correction level of 76.4% (1.3044). Also, the quotes of the pound-dollar pair closed under the upward trend range. Thus, until the closing of the pair over the last peak of divergence, a weak downward mood among traders may remain.
All the economic reports of the last day did not lead to any changes in the GBP/USD exchange rate. The pullback took place yesterday but it was unlikely to be associated with the lack of GDP growth in October in the UK and a weak report on industrial production. The British pound has been waiting for two months for the event that will begin tomorrow - the parliamentary elections. Everything has been said on this topic, so I think it is best to wait for the results of these elections. Traders have repeatedly shown their reluctance to pay attention to any economic reports, most likely, today they will not change their desires, and two major events, the US inflation report and the Fed meeting, will also be ignored. Meanwhile, the pound has started and may continue to fall to the correction level of 76.4%. The fact is that in the last week, the "Briton" grew almost recklessly, and it is difficult to think of a better time for correction than the day before the parliamentary elections.
The most interesting, of course, is expected after the elections in the UK. First, the composition of the parliament will become clear, and accordingly, it will be possible to draw the first conclusions on the options for Brexit. Secondly, the parliament will simply resume its work, which means that it will begin to make some decisions. Since September, when Boris Johnson sent deputies on compulsory leave, the parliament rested more than it worked. Thirdly, if the Conservative Party does not win a majority in the House of Commons, the likelihood of a second referendum will increase many times. A second referendum is a new series of the "Brexit", in which Boris Johnson will put a spoke in the wheels of Jeremy Corbyn and try to block the attempt to arrange a popular vote again.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The pound-dollar pair completed the growth process. Thus, now I do not advise to buy "Briton", as today and tomorrow the pair may roll back down. A further trading strategy can be built after the results of the vote.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
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