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Warunki handlowe
Narzędzia
4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper channel of linear regression: direction - upward.
The lower channel of linear regression: direction - upward.
The moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 77.5330
On Tuesday, January 14, the EUR/USD currency pair ended with a new round of corrective movement. The pair tried to resume the downward trend but it returned to the moving average line. We cannot say that the new round of correction was justified fundamentally, but at the same time, traders did not get new reasons for selling the European currency. In general, the past day can be called neutral or contradictory in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Thus, we are waiting for a new rebound of quotes from the moving average with the resumption of the downward trend. This option, from our point of view, remains the most justified general fundamental background. At the same time, the market participants' overcoming of moving will change the current trend to an upward one.
There was only one macroeconomic report yesterday - the consumer price index in the United States. And its meaning, frankly, is difficult to describe in words. On the one hand, inflation in the US accelerated further in December and amounted to + 2.3% y/y. This is certainly great news for the States, the Fed, and the US currency. At the same time, market participants were ready for such a real value, as the forecasts predicted it. However, the monthly value was worse than expected (+0.3%) and amounted to only 0.2%. The same applies to the consumer price index, excluding food and energy products. Thus, it turns out that inflation itself accelerated, however, traders were not impressed with these figures. That is why the US dollar received very indirect market support, which quickly dried up.
Today may go down in history. It is today, January 15, that US President Donald Trump and Deputy Premier of the State Council of China Liu He should sign the "first phase" trade agreement between the countries. The signing ceremony will take place at the White House, after which the document will be published. At the same time, despite the apparent truce, the States are not going to cancel all duties on Chinese imports. "There are no other oral or written agreements between America and China on the complete abolition of duties, and there is no agreement on future tariff reductions," Robert Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin said in a joint statement. Official Washington believes that the duties will be retained until the "second phase" is signed. Meanwhile, information has appeared in the media that reveals some details of the agreement between Beijing and Washington. The most significant point of the agreement, perhaps, is the obligation of China to buy a total of two years of goods in the United States for 200 billion dollars. According to the document, China will have to buy 75 billion worth of industrial goods, 50 billion worth of energy resources, 40 billion worth of agricultural products, and another 35-40 billion will be spent on the service sector. Well, approximately such conditions should be expected. The main goal of the trade war for America is to balance the balance of payments and trade with China. To do this, it was necessary to increase China's purchases of American products and services. In any case, if the signatures are delivered today - it will be good news for the United States, China, dollar, euro, yuan, and the whole world.
As for the prospects for the euro-dollar currency pair, it seems that we are again faced with the reluctance of the bears to increase their positions. The euro has recovered against the dollar in recent months, however, the overall fundamental background (the difference in the monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, the general state of the US and EU economies) remains in favor of the US currency. Thus, we expect a new downwards trend, but at the same time, we do not recommend selling the euro until the fundamental expectations are confirmed by technical indicators.
The average volatility of the Euro-dollar currency pair is currently 43 points and continues to decline. Thus, we have volatility levels as of January 15 - 1.1084 and 1.1170. Today, if the moving average is overcome, the upward movement can continue to the upper limit of the volatility channel. In the European Union, industrial production for November will be published today, which is likely to decrease and affect the course of trading.
Nearest support levels:
S1 - 1.1108
S2 - 1.1078
S3 - 1.1047
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1.1139
R2 - 1.1169
R3 - 1.1200
Trading recommendations:
The euro-dollar pair continues to adjust. Thus, at the moment, traders are advised to wait until the correction is completed, the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down and the resumption of selling the euro with targets of 1.1108 and 1.1084, if the pair remains below the moving average. It is recommended to return to pair purchases with a target of 1.1168 no earlier than overcoming the level of 1.1139 for traders with the first target of 1.1169.
In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustrations:
The upper channel of linear regression - the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.
The lower channel of linear regression - the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.
CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi - an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
Possible variants of the price movement:
Red and green arrows.
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