Anuluj 
Warunki handlowe
Narzędzia
Yesterday, the single European currency did not support the rapid growth of the pound, due to the preservation of the Bank of England refinancing rate at the same level. This is largely due to the fact that the decision of the Bank of England still concerns the pound, and not the single European currency. In addition, they expect publication of preliminary inflation data in Europe, so investors decided to wait a bit.
At the same time, the single European currency had reason for optimism, as the unemployment rate in Europe declined from 7.5% to 7.4%. However, no reaction followed and even if it was, it is extremely insignificant.
Unemployment Rate (Europe):
It seems that the decline in the unemployment rate will be recovered today, along with inflation data, but this is not so. The fact is that they were leveled by yesterday's American statistics, which were clearly positive. Thus, the first estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter showed that the pace of economic growth accelerated from 2.1% to 2.3%. This is significantly more than in Europe, so investors have something to think about. In addition, the number of applications for unemployment benefits declined not by 29 thousand, but by 51 thousand. This happened due to a larger than predicted reduction in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits. They decreased by 44 thousand instead of 22 thousand. On the other hand, the number of initial applications, as expected, decreased by 7 thousand.
GDP growth rate (United States):
So now, the most anticipated news today is inflation data in Europe. Although preliminary, they can still show an acceleration in the growth rate of consumer prices from 1.3% to 1.4%. Even a moderate increase in inflation removes the risks of the possibility of a further reduction in interest rates of the European Central Bank. At the same time, if this growth continues, then, as Christine Lagarde said, there is a possibility of an increase in the refinancing rate. In other words, even such an increase in inflation may cause the single European currency to repeat yesterday's jump in the pound. Another thing is that the growth potential of the single European currency will be constrained by preliminary data on European GDP for the fourth quarter, which are expected to show a slowdown in economic growth from 1.2% to 1.0%. In addition, do not exclude such a possibility as that inflation forecasts will not materialize. In this case, the single European currency will quickly move down.
Inflation (Europe):
In turn, American statistics have nothing to defend itself from European data, since only data on personal income and expenses that are not so significant for the market are published. Nevertheless, we note that revenues should grow by 0.4%, and expenses by 0.5%, exceeding growth in spending indicates the growth potential of consumer activity, which is the main driver of the US economy.
Personal expenses (United States):
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a local rebound from the psychological level of 1.1000, where the quote touched the value of 1.1039, but the bulls potential was exhausted on this. In fact, we still have interaction with the control level of 1.1000, where the quote forms accumulation without any fundamental changes.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see that the concentration within the psychological level has been happening for the fifth day in a row, which leads to the idea of restraint, which can lead to acceleration. If we look at the trading chart relative to the daily period, we will see that the quote is at the stage of recovery relative to the elongated correction, winning back about 60%.
It is likely to assume that the quote will try to get closer to the control level of 1.1000 again, having weak activity at the beginning. Then, based on the news background, local leaps can occur, where the best tactic would be to take a waiting position, analyzing the price fixing points, relative to the interaction coordinates 1,0990 / 1,1040.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions are considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.1045, not a puncture shadow.
- Short positions are considered in case of price fixing lower than 1.0990, not a puncture in the shadow of a candle.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the hourly periods took neutral interest due to the local rebound, while the daily areas still retain a sell signal. On the other hand, minute intervals are not taken into account due to the multi-directional signal.
Dzięki analizom InstaForex zawsze będziesz na bieżące z trendami rynkowymi! Zarejestruj się w InstaForex i uzyskaj dostęp do jeszcze większej liczby bezpłatnych usług dla zyskownego handlu.
