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EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On March 23, the European currency, following the pound, which, by the way, did not last long in its "bullish" mood, began to show signs of life. Quotes of the euro/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the first and began a weak growth process on the hourly chart. Weak – based on the picture, in fact, almost 200 points were passed during the day, and this night and in the morning – another 140. However, this is not the main thing now. It is clear that traders remain almost in a state of shock. Thus, the amplitude of movements is high. The main thing is that the euro is recovering after a long and very strong fall. Closing the pair's exchange rate under a new and weak upward trend line will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of falling quotes.
EUR/USD – 4H.
According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair also performed a reversal in favor of the euro currency and closed above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0778). Thus, on March 24, the growth of quotes can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.0948). However, a bearish divergence is brewing in the CCI indicator, which allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.0582). Bull traders have not yet recovered from the shock of recent weeks, but if bear traders loosen their grip or simply get fed up, the euro will have a high chance of growth.
EUR/USD – Daily.
As seen on the daily chart, the picture for the EUR/USD pair is identical to the 4-hour chart. There are no clear and accurate signals to buy now. There is only an indirect signal, and even then not the strongest, in the form of a possible consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0%. However, from this level, the pair performed a pullback yesterday and the day before. There are no new graphical constructions or patterns at the moment. By and large, you need to wait for the correction and its completion, so that the current picture of the currency pair allows you to build a new Fibonacci grid or, perhaps, a trend line or corridors. The coronavirus pandemic is not abating around the world, and in general, little has changed in recent days. Nevertheless, the US dollar has stopped growing, and traders remain in a state of shock, judging by the high amplitude.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pair's quotes closed under the lower line of the narrowing triangle. Thus, the probability of resuming the fall increases sharply, although the consolidation does not look clear and strong. However, I believe that this point is extremely important for the pair. Either the pair will soon return to the triangle area, or, most likely, the euro will continue to fall. The breakdown may be false.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 23, the European Union and the United States did not release any economic reports. However, as usual, there was a lot of news. This time, they all concerned the decisions of the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to provide virtually unlimited funding and incentives to all sectors of the economy that were affected by the epidemic. The Fed and the US government are ready to pour an unlimited amount of dollars into the economy, just to stop its fall.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
Germany - index of business activity in the service sector (10:30 GMT).
Germany - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (10:30 GMT).
EU - index of business activity in the service sector (11:00 GMT).
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (11:00 GMT).
US - index of business activity in the service sector (15:45 GMT).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (15:45 GMT).
On March 24, the European Union, Germany, and America will release quite important reports on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors. However, the number one topic in the world remains the coronavirus epidemic. Traders continue to remain in a state of shock and it is far from certain that they will pay at least some attention to these reports.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
Until March 17, 2020, both groups of major market players were reducing the number of contracts. The total number of long contracts decreased by 60,000, and short – by 66,000. Commercial group continues to move the market, as it is the hedgers who have the largest number of contracts in their assets. Speculators also got rid of short contracts, not believing in a further fall in the euro currency. Thus, a group of traders who are professionally engaged in studying rates and forecasting them, do not believe that the euro will continue to fall. And the overall advantage of the bears is not so great now. I believe that the probability of ending the downward trend is high, but the market is in a state of shock, so at any moment the mood of major players can change dramatically.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
The situation for the EUR/USD pair is a bit confusing. The COT report suggests that bear traders remain strong, but a change in the picture is also possible. Thus, I recommend buying a pair with the target of 1.0948 and the stop loss level under the trend line on the hourly chart, and selling – if it is fixed under the trend line on the hourly chart with the goal of 1.0582.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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