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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the corrective level of 323.6% (1.1665), performed a reversal in favor of the British currency and secured over the side corridor. Thus, the mood of most traders changed to "bullish", and I immediately built an upward trend corridor that supports this mood. At the moment, on the morning of March 27, the pair's quotes fulfilled the level of 200.0% (1.2251). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow you to count on a slight fall in the direction of the lower line of the corridor. I believe that only the closing of the pound/dollar pair under the corridor will restore confidence to bear traders.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the new grid of Fibo levels shows a clear development of the level of 50.0% (1.2303). Thus, the euro worked out the level of 50.0% from the last fall, and the British also worked it out. Now both euro currencies can start falling quotes, which will be further supported by the information background, or vice versa. Thus, now it is best to pay attention to the hourly chart, where there is a clear trend corridor. None of the indicators is showing emerging divergence today. Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 50.0% will work in favor of continuing growth.
GBP/USD – Daily.
As seen on the daily chart, the picture remains the most interesting. The GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1538), continues the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2327). The rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall of the pair in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1959). The COVID-2019 virus epidemic is spreading around the world and is the fastest in America. This factor puts pressure on the US currency, as it means extremely pessimistic prospects for the US economy. In addition, yesterday it became known that the number of applications for unemployment in America for the week of March 13-20 was more than 3 million. And this is just the beginning. In the week of March 21-28, there may be no less. But it is also worth waiting for data on unemployment (and other indicators) in the UK and the European Union. It is likely that the situation there is no better.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the UK released a report on retail trade in February. All the figures in this report were worse than traders' expectations, but the British pound still continued to grow, as the factors driving the market are now different. Today, the House of Representatives must approve a $2 trillion package of assistance to the American economy, which will then have to be signed by Trump.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
US - change in the level of expenditure of the population (14:30 GMT).
US - change in the level of income of the population (14:30 GMT).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (16:00 GMT).
Today, none of the planned reports will attract the attention of traders. Thus, the main topic will remain the COVID-2019 virus in the United States, and the possible actions of Donald Trump and his administration in countering its spread.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
The latest COT report showed no major changes in the number of contracts between speculators and hedge companies. The total number of long and short contracts has decreased slightly, but remains almost equal. The "Commercial" group immediately dropped 30,000 short contracts and 12,000 long contracts at once. A group of speculators has increased 9,000 short-contracts. Thus, speculators believe that the pound can resume the process of falling, but speculators who trade GBP/USD are now few and in their hands are concentrated in half the number of contracts than in the hands of large companies that hedge their currency risks the market. I assume that the British pound will continue to grow against the backdrop of serious stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and the US government, as well as the developing epidemic in America. The new COT report, which will be available today, will show how much the mood of major players has changed over the past week.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
The key graphical construction now is the channel on the hourly chart. Thus, the rejection of quotes from its upper line or the level of 50.0% on the 4-hour chart will allow the pair to sell with the targets of 1.2095 and 1.2055. At the same time, larger and longer-term sales will only be possible after the pair closes under the corridor on the hourly chart. There can only be one buy signal today – a bounce from the 38.2% level on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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