30.03.202006:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 30. Boris Johnson: the situation with the "coronavirus" can get much worse

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 183.5006

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its upward movement at the beginning of the new trading week, as evidenced by the Heiken Ashi indicator. Unfortunately, the situation with "coronavirus" in the world and separately in the UK continues to deteriorate. This means that markets continue to panic, and the world's economies continue to decline. At the moment, according to official data, about 20,000 people in the UK have already fallen ill, and the number of deaths is 1,231. However, as we have repeatedly said, this is only official data, not real data. Every government, for one thing, can underestimate the real numbers. Second, most of the infected population may not be identified at all. However, even with this number of patients, only sad news comes.

On the territory of the airport in Birmingham, a temporary mortuary will be built for those who died from "coronavirus". This decision was made in connection with a sharp increase in deaths from the epidemic in the Foggy Albion. At the same time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who himself recently contracted the "coronavirus" and is now in self-isolation in his residence in Downing Street, urges Britons to comply with the terms of the quarantine and do not leave their homes. "If a lot of people get sick at the same time, the health care system may not be able to cope with such a load. We must reduce the growth rate of infection and reduce the number of patients requiring hospitalization in order to save as many lives as possible. That is why you need to follow a simple instruction: stay at home," Boris Johnson wrote in an open letter to the public. Boris Johnson also gave another "optimistic" forecast: "I will be honest with you. Things will only get worse before they get better. The more strictly you observe the rules of quarantine, the fewer lives we will lose and the habitual life will return faster."

No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled in the UK for Monday, March 30. However, important figures in the States will be published this week. So far, the US dollar continues to fall in price, but this process was preceded by strong growth in the dollar exchange rate. We still believe that the British currency can calmly recover to the levels of 1.28-1.32, from which, in fact, it began to fall. However, it is not necessary to talk about any logic of the movement of the pound/dollar pair (and other pairs, too). Therefore, as before, we recommend increased caution in trading.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair in the last four days has started to grow again from a minimum of 268 points to a maximum of 404. The average value is 367 points per day. This is a huge number. The activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair remains extremely high. On Monday, March 30, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2119 and 1.2785. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2207

S2 - 1.1963

S3 - 1.1719

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, purchases of the pound with the targets of 1.2695 and 1.2785 remain relevant now. The movement is strong, so you can exit the longs by turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the British currency with the target of 1.1719, if the bears manage to overcome the moving average. We remind you that in the current conditions, opening any positions is associated with increased risks.