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Hello, dear traders!
Today's review of the dollar/franc pair will start again with the topic of the ill-fated coronavirus.
If everything is relatively quiet in Switzerland with regard to COVID-19, then in the United States, the pandemic continues to gain momentum. In the United States, the situation is the most difficult, and the number of infected, according to the latest data, is already more than 312,000 people.
US President Donald Trump ignored the recommendations of virologists and did not deign to introduce a self-isolation regime in the country. At the same time, the American leader urged US citizens to prepare for the worst 1-2 weeks, when the death rate will increase significantly. And on the night of Monday to Tuesday, the number of deaths from COVID-19, according to various sources, was about 1,225 people. But this is not the peak of the epidemic!
As for the technical picture of the USD/CHF currency pair, let's first evaluate the results of the past five days of trading.
Weekly
At the end of trading last week, the dollar/franc rose to 0.9794, then the pair rebounded slightly and ended last week at 0.9766. After the opening of trading this week, the bulls on the instrument intended to continue the rise of the rate, but they could not move above 0.9796.
At the moment, the pair is trading around 0.9732, and it is still unclear what will happen next. If the upward momentum resumes and goes above 0.9796, the next target for possible growth, judging by the weekly timeframe, may be a strong technical area of 0.9800-0.9840, where there are 200 EMA, 89 EMA, and 50 MA, as well as the technical level of 0.9847. But even if you pass this mark, the real tests for players to increase the rate are expected near the strong technical and psychological level of 0.9900. This is also the lower border of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which will no doubt strengthen the resistance of sellers.
In order for the bears to regain control of the pair, they will also need to make every effort. If the Kijun and Tenkan lines are broken in turn during the downward dynamics, as well as the extremely important technical and psychological level of 0.9500, we can say that serious sellers have returned to the market.
Daily
In this timeframe, we can see the strong resistance provided by the orange 200 exponential moving average, which in no way wants to skip the quote up. On the other hand, it supports the 89 exponential pair and the level of 0.9717.
In my personal opinion, the struggle of the warring parties at this stage is conducted in the range of 0.9700-0.9800. Breaking through the significant level of 0.9700 and fixing below it will make the next targets - 0.9640, 0.9600, 0.9570, 0.9530, and 0.9500. Only the breakdown of the last of the listed level of 0.9500 will finally convince you of the bearish scenario for USD/CHF.
Updating the current highs and leaving above 0.9800 will target the bulls at 0.9860 and 0.9900, where the further direction of this currency pair will be decided.
Conclusion and trading recommendations for USD/CHF:
The situation is ambiguous, so there are options for both purchases and sales. I recommend that you consider the nearest purchases when you go down to the price zone of 0.9720-0.9700. If the level of 0.9700 is broken, you should think about opening short positions on the rollback to this level. We are looking for sales at more attractive prices slightly below the recent highs, near the mark of 0.9770.
In both cases, it is better to wait for confirmation signals in the form of reversal patterns of Japanese candles on the four-hour and (or) hourly charts before opening positions. The situation is not easy, and can change, as usual, at the most inopportune moment.
Be vigilant!
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