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The EUR/USD pair seems undecided after failing to activate a larger upwards movement. It's traded at 1.1297 level at the time of writing. In the short term, it has changed little, most likely the traders are waiting for the US data before taking action.
As you already know, the US is to release its Non-Farm Employment Change which is expected at 553K above 531K in the previous reporting period, while the Unemployment Rate may drop from 4.6% to 4.5%. In addition, the Average Hourly Earnings could register a 0.4% growth, while the ISM Services PMI could drop from 66.7 to 64.9 points.
The US data could be decisive today. You should be careful as the volatility could be high, the EUR/USD could register sharp movements in both directions. The currency pair maintains a bearish bias, so better than expected US data could force the USD to drag the pair lower.
As you can see on the H4 chart, the descending pitchfork's median line (ML) stands as a strong dynamic resistance. As long as it stays under this line, EUR/USD could drop deeper. Also, it has slipped back below the 23.6% retracement level, so it could come back down towards the weekly pivot point (1.1274) after its false breakout above the R1 and through the 38.2% retracement level.
EUR/USD rebound seems over after registering only false breakouts above the median line (ML). A minor sideways movement or the median line (ML) retest could bring new short opportunities. The selling pressure remains high as long as it stays under this dynamic resistance.
The downside scenario could be invalidated only if the rate jumps and closes above the median line (ML).
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