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Last week, the FOMC released the minutes of its June meeting, which discussed the intention of Fed officials to change the rate of federal funds, as well as fix the balance sheet. In other words, the FOMC is likely to strengthen its benchmarks next year:
Indeed, the committee members agree that the current position of monetary policy is adequate, but many noted that at the upcoming meetings, further clarification is needed to show their intentions regarding future decisions in the field of monetary policy. It will clarify economic prospects, with which the committee should provide a clearer form of preliminary guidance on the course of federal funds, as well as provide greater clarity with respect to purchases of treasury securities.
Thus, the question now is which direction will the committee choose.
Some members want to associate any increase in rates with a decrease in unemployment below a certain level, while several chose to make the normalization of federal funds dependent on inflation. Nevertheless, everyone agrees that the Fed should not raise interest rates if inflation does not exceed the target 2%.
In simple terms, this means that the Fed is likely to sustain inflation above its target for some time, and will not raise interest rates if inflation does not exceed 2%.
Such news are great for gold, which is considered a hedge against inflation. Higher inflation also means lower real interest rates, all of which should support gold prices.
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