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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On the hourly chart, the quotes of the pound/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar also after statements by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about the upcoming new package of support for the country's economy. At the moment, the pair has fallen to the lower line of the upward trend corridor. Thus, the rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth, and the mood of traders will remain "bullish". Closing the pair's rate under the trend corridor will allow traders to count on a new fall in the pair with goals that will give older charts. Meanwhile, in the UK, the authorities decided to weaken the quarantine even more. From July 11, British citizens will be allowed to conduct theater, opera and music shows in the open air, and from July 13, cosmetology, tattoo and spa salons will open. In contrast to America, where the epidemic continues to rage and daily updated anti-records on the incidence of diseases, in Europe, the situation is much better. However, it is the British economy that may experience the greatest problems in the recovery. And this factor may not allow the British to grow in the long term.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator. Thus, the process of falling quotes can now be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2530). However, the lower line of the trend corridor on the hourly chart is an important barrier to the pair's downward path. Thus, this barrier can be cut off with the resumption of the growth process.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes secured above the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2776). This option supports an hourly chart at this time.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line and rebound from it. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of two downward trend lines.
News overview:
There was not much economic news from the UK and US on Thursday. As I said, Steven Mnuchin's speech cheered bear traders up a bit, but now they have important and strong obstacles on their way down that they need to pass in order to count on something more.
News calendar for the US and UK:
On July 10, the US and UK economic news calendars do not contain anything interesting. Traders today will only have to watch for possible news about the progress of the Brexit negotiations.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report for the British pound was quite interesting, especially against the background of the previous one. It turned out that large traders in the reporting week actively increased short-contracts(+8359), but did not forget about long-contracts (+3990). Thus, the "Commercial" group was in a bearish mood during the reporting week. And this mood fully corresponded to the nature of the movement of the British dollar, as this currency fell in the week of June 24-30. The "Commercial" group increased its long-term contracts during the reporting week, but we are more interested in the Non-commercial group. This group has 56 thousand short contracts and 35 thousand long contracts in total. Thus, I believe that in the future, the pound will resume falling. At least this is evidenced by the falling interest of large traders in long. But to work out this assumption, you need graphical signals and confirmations. As you can see, now the pound is in demand despite the opposite data from the COT report.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend selling the British dollar today with the goals of 1.2530 and 1.2444, if the closing is performed under the trend corridor on the hourly chart. New purchases of the pair can be opened with the goal of 1.2811, if the rebound is made from the lower line of the corridor.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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