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EUR/USD – 1H.
Good afternoon, dear traders! On August 24, the euro/dollar pair performed a rebound from the new downward trend line, a reversal in favor of the US dollar, and a slight fall in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. However, this morning, a new reversal was made in favor of the single currency and a rise began in the direction of the trend line. Thus, at the moment, the mood of traders is still bearish. However, a close above the trend line will allow us to count on the further rise of the pair. On Monday, there was not a lot of information: no significant economic reports, no news from the US that deserve attention. In the near future, we expect a lot of interesting reports from the US. Let me remind you that the US Congress has not agreed on a new package of stimulus measures for the economy. In addition, the conflict between China and the United States is becoming more complicated. Besides, the US presidential election is approaching. At the moment, amid almost empty macroeconomic calendar, traders are showing weak activity, however, the situation may change in the near future.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and continued falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% located at 1.1729. The pair's rebound from this Fibo level will work in favor of the single currency. The pair may also resume increasing in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% located at 1.2027. A reversal may occur without hitting this level. In this case, we will not see a signal on the current chart. The pair has been trading sideways for almost a month. Bulls made an attempt to break the upper limit of the range, but failed.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair performed another reversal and fixed under the correction level of 261.8% located at 1.1825. However, above and below this level, quotes have been fixed several times. I think it is better to pay attention to the trend corridor now. If the pair closes below it, the US dollar will rise.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further rise of the euro that could be very strong and long. At the same time, the break may be false. In this case, the pair will resume falling.
News overview:
On August 24, there was not a single noteworthy economic report or event in Europe.
Economic calendar for the United States and the European Union:
Germany - Gross Domestic Product (06-00 GMT).
US - CB Consumer Confidence (14-00 GMT).
On August 25, the calendar of the European Union and the United States contains just a few reports that will hardly attract traders' attention.
COT report (Commitments of traders):
The last COT report was very boring. Major market players were increasing short-contracts during the reporting week. However, the most interesting group of "Non-commercial" market participants was engaged in reducing the number of long and short contracts on their hands. Speculators got rid of 4,500 contracts. Thus, we can say that their mood did not change at all. They still have 4 times more long contracts than short contracts on their hands. It means that their mood became a bit more bearish. Moreover, since July 7, speculators have been increasing long or reducing short deals. Thus, I am not sure that this week the pair will fall amid the COT report.
Outlook for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with the targets at 1.1695 - 1.1710, if it fixes below the Fibo level of 76.4% located at 1.1771 on the hourly chart. Next target is the level of 76.4% located at 1.1771. Deals could be opened with this target if the price rebounds from the level of 61.8% located at 1.1808 or the trend line on the hourly chart. I recommend buying a pair with the goal of 1.2027 in case of a rebound from the level of 1.1695 or if the price closes above the trend line on the hourly chart.
Terminology::
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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