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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal near the corrective level of 76.4% and began the growth process, which continued throughout the past day and ended only near the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3167). The rebound of quotes from this level worked in favor of the US dollar and began to fall towards the levels of 61.8% and 76.4%. Despite the fact that the dollar was under pressure from the trader all the past day, I can not say that at this time there is an upward trend. There is not a single corridor or trend line at the moment, and the exchange rate often changes direction. Thus, the picture is more like a wide sidewall. The information background from America is again beginning to arrive negative. On Thursday, Jerome Powell will give a speech and, given the current state of the US economy, few people expect positive rhetoric from him. And on Monday, a new wave of protests and rallies began in America, related to a new racist scandal that occurred in the state of Wisconsin. This time, police opened fire on an unarmed black boy in front of his own children, who offered no resistance and was not carrying a weapon. New protests and riots broke out in many cities in the United States.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair returned to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3157). However, the pair's rebound from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2964). In addition, a bearish divergence is formed in the CCI indicator, which increases the probability of a rebound from the level of 161.8%. Thus, both lower charts are inclined to resume the fall. Nevertheless, the mood of traders on the 4-hour chart continues to be characterized as "bullish" due to the upward trend corridor.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3199), so the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2776). The third chart that predicts the fall of quotes.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the lower downward trend line. A pullback from this line may allow the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the US dollar and resume the process of falling towards the approximately level of 1.1500. This is a long-term perspective.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no major economic reports in the UK and America on Tuesday. However, the information background is now still available.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 GMT).
On August 26, the UK news calendar is empty again. Thus, the pair can only be influenced by a single report in the US.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound again showed a serious increase in the number of long contracts in the hands of speculators (the "Non-commercial" group). Thus, according to the latest COT report, we can only say that the "bullish" mood of the most important group of traders has only strengthened. At the same time, speculators reduced the number of short-contracts by 2.2 thousand. Thus, with such data, the British can resume the growth process at any time. I recommend treating the COT report as a fundamental signal. And every signal requires confirmation. Therefore, more attention should still be paid to graphical analysis. And the COT report only adds to this data. And the latest COT report says that the probability of a strong fall in the British pound is low. At the same time, all four charts are now inclined to fall in quotes.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend selling the British currency with the goals of 1.3105 and 1.3167, since the rebound from the level of 38.2% on the hourly chart was performed and a bearish divergence was formed on the 4-hour chart. Purchases of the British currency will be possible if the quotes close above the level of 161.8% (1.3157) on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3205 and 1.3260.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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