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The pound/dollar pair is showing the greatest activity today among all the pairs of the "major" group. The pound is actively losing the conquered points, heading towards the borders of the 31st figure. We are reminded of Brexit again, and this time, traders were unable to ignore the negative signals. Let me remind you that the heads of the negotiating groups announced their positions at the end of last week. Both Michel Barnier and David Frost have declared the failure of the last round of negotiations. On Friday, the market reacted quite restrainedly to their comments. However, the situation worsened over the weekend, as additional comments by Barnier and Boris Johnson's ultimatum put the strongest pressure on the pound: it lost almost 100 points in just a few hours of Monday's Asian session. And given the voiced disposition, the British dollar will fall further in the medium-term, to the borders of the 29th figure. Moreover, the political standoff between London and Brussels is approaching a crucial stage: it will be known soon whether a deal will be concluded or whether the parties will disperse without any trade agreements.
The next deadline is set for October 15th. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said yesterday that if the negotiating groups do not reach an agreement on future relations by this date, then his country "will be ready to accept this and move on." It's worth noting here that Johnson previously set a similar deadline for the end of June; however, as the time approached, Europe expressed its readiness to make certain concessions, so the parties continued the negotiation process. Today, the situation is more complicated. Firstly, Brussels accuses London of lack of "political flexibility" (according to Europeans, the British do not make mutual concessions), and secondly, Johnson flatly refuses to extend the transition period, which ends on January 1.
In addition, the head of the British government has proposed the so-called "Canadian option" once again, according to which London will conclude a deal with Brussels, similar to the agreement on a Comprehensive Free Trade Area (CETA) between the EU and Canada. This option allows for almost duty-free trade, with the exception of a number of goods and services market. Alternatively, the British propose to go according to the "Australian option." In this case, the parties can choose on which sectors of the economy they can come to an agreement, while all other areas will be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization.
But all of the above options have their flaws – primarily from the point of view of the interests of the European Union. According to Barnier, the trade agreement between Britain and the EU will particularly include the regulation of the fishing industry and other specific conditions of the relationship, given the territorial and economic proximity. Therefore, according to the European negotiator, the future relations between Great Britain and the EU cannot be compared with the relations of the European Union with Canada or Australia. In addition, Brussels continues to insist that London accept the jurisdiction of the EU Court of Justice in possible trade disputes, however, Johnson is likely opposed to this proposition.
Given this disposition, pessimism is growing on both sides. In particular, Britain's Chief Negotiator, David Frost, said in an interview with "The Mail" on Sunday that the UK is "fully prepared to trade with the EU without an agreement." According to him, this option involves, in particular, the introduction of export taxes and customs inspections. In turn, the head of the European negotiating group Michel Barnier, who reported on a "disappointing" round of negotiation in London last week, said Britain would have to compromise on fair competition, fisheries and dispute resolution or the deal won't be made.
Tomorrow, September 8, Barnier will travel to Britain for the next round of negotiations. Given the voiced positions of Johnson, Frost and Barnier himself, it can be assumed that these negotiations will end in failure. As a result, the pound is already declining, even before the start of the negotiation process.
The downward prospects of the GBP/USD pair are confirmed by the technical picture. If the pair overcomes the level of 1.3180, it will be between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, and the Ichimoku indicator will form a "Dead Cross" signal, in which the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are above the price, and the Kumo cloud is under it. All this suggests that the pair still has the potential to decline, up to the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, that is, to the level of 1.2980. However, the first target of the downward decline is the level of 1.3060 (local low), below which the pair did not fall since the beginning of August. Thus, it is advisable to open short positions only when the price consolidates below the level of 1.3180 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1).
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