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At its meeting yesterday, the Bank of Canada did not make any changes to its monetary policy and kept the main interest rate at 0.25%. The volume of the program to stimulate the economy to recover from the consequences of COVID-19 remained unchanged. At the same time, the Bank of Canada believes that the period of low-interest rates will be long-term. As for the introduction of additional incentives, the bank believes that the current package of measures is quite sufficient. Today, at 17:30 (London time), the Governor of the Canadian Central Bank will deliver a speech focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various sectors of the Maple Leaf country's economy. There will be no more macroeconomic reports from Canada this week. But from the United States of America today, starting from 13:30 (London time), a fairly impressive block of statistics is expected. Tomorrow at the same time, the US consumer price index will be published, which is the most important inflation indicator in the country.
Weekly
Since the USD/CAD currency pair is considered infrequently, I will start the technical part of this review with a weekly chart. Last week, the pair fell to the very important psychological and technical level of 1.3000, where it found strong support and rebounded, ending the week at 1.3058. The formed candle could be considered a reversal, which confirms the course of the current weekly trading. The quote shows growth and has already risen to 1.3258, however, it could not gain a foothold at these heights and rolled back down, leaving a long shadow at the top. Despite the fact that the shadow is quite impressive, the bulls on the pair still have time to raise the rate and make it shorter. Also, in this situation, growth is restrained by the 200 exponential moving average, which runs at 1.3120. If the growth continues and the pair updates the current highs at 1.3258, the next target for USD/CAD bulls will be the price zone of 1.3300-1.3330, where the strong technical level and the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator are located. The bearish scenario will develop only in the case of a true breakdown of the landmark level of 1.3000, with subsequent consolidation under this important mark.
Daily
On the daily chart, the pair is trading around the midline of the descending channel 1.4263-1.4139 (resistance line) and 1.3314 (support line). It is also worth noting that the price can not yet be fixed above the Kijun line (blue) of the Ichimoku indicator. Today, having found support at the other line of this Tenkan indicator, USD/CAD shows growth and readiness to continue it. A lot will depend on today's US statistics and the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada.
Despite the assumptions about the reversal of the exchange rate, it is difficult to call the situation obvious for the pair, thus, there is still an opportunity for both purchases and sales. It is better to plan purchases after a decline in the price zone of 1.3155-1.3135 and the appearance of reversal candle signals on the four-hour and hourly charts. Sales should be considered if the corresponding signals appear in the price zone of 1.3200-1.3235. It would not be a bad option to wait until the end of weekly trading and make more definite conclusions based on the formed candle.
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