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GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair continued to trade with a downward bias on September 23, inside a new downward channel. Therefore, the downward trend has not been reversed. Sellers dominate the market now, thanks to failed fundamentals from the UK. As long as the price is within the descending channel, it makes no sense to count on the British pound's growth. A fairly strong support area of 1.2635-1.2660 awaits below the quotes, which may not let the pound/dollar pair fall below it the first time. Thus, the pair may temporarily stop falling this week.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels are directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, which fully corresponds to the pair's current trend. The new Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which came out last Friday, was very expressive. The previous report shows that professional traders became more bullish despite the fact that the British currency fell 700 points in price. The new COT report turned out to be much more logical. Non-commercial traders closed 4,500 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) from September 9 to 15. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders decreased by 11,500 contracts at once. This is very significant, since this group has 81,000 contracts. Therefore, this time the data of the COT report coincides with the nature of trading in the foreign exchange market. Commercial traders were even more interesting, as they closed 37,000 Buy-contracts and 45,000 Sell-contracts in just a week. This suggests that many large players are currently not interested in the pound as an investment currency. The future of the UK and its economy is so uncertain that traders are not interested in buying or selling. Commercial traders are hedgers and, judging by the COT report, they simply switch to other currencies rather than use the pound in their accounts. The new COT report, to be released this Friday, may show minor changes, however, the sentiment of non-commercial traders is likely to become even more bearish.
UK PMIs were released on Wednesday, September 23. The indicator for the service sector fell to 55.1 points, while the production sector dropped to 54.3. However, both values were above the 50.0 mark, so British business activity did not give cause for concern. However, the positive news for the pound ends there. We have already said that the second wave of the pandemic has begun in the UK, and the general fundamental background implies a fall in the British pound's quotes. Sellers may take a break at the end of this week, but in general, the chances of falling are great. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a new speech on Thursday. If he provides any new information, it could stir up the markets again. However, he already shared all the important information at the beginning of the week. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin will testify before the Congress, which are potentially also very important, but in fact may not give the markets any fundamentally new information.
We have two trading ideas for September 24:
1) Buyers have let go of the initiative and now they have to work hard enough to get it back. It will be possible to talk about buying the pound but first the price should settle above the descending channel with the first target being the Senkou Span B line (1.2959). However, given the fundamental background and the general mood of market participants, the trend is unlikely to change to an upward trend in the coming days. Take Profit in this case will be about 120 points.
2) On the other hand, sellers can only continue to trade down at this time. The nearest targets are support levels 1.2667 and 1.2558. It is best to sell the pair from the upper area of the descending channel. Price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line (1.2835) or the upper channel line can be used to open new sell orders. Take Profit in this case can range from 50 to 150 points.
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
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