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History repeats itself. This is true not only for technical analysis but also for fundamental market research. The US dollar's reaction to the recession is very similar: first, it rises due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, then falls in response to the Fed's monetary stimulus, and finally returns to growth on expectations of a faster recovery in the US GDP compared to that of Europe and other countries. The dollar strengthened in 9 out of 10 cases after the US presidential election and often reacts to the seasonal factor. You can find quite a few templates on the charts, and one of them is related to 2017.
Three years ago, the EUR/USD pair touched the psychologically important 1.2 mark for a while, but the verbal interventions of ECB Governing Council member Benoit Coeure laid the first brick for correction. The pullback was due to increased demand for the dollar due to the accumulation of cash by the US Treasury ahead of the decision on the important issue of the debt ceiling. When there is an increase in the currency on the Treasury's balance sheet, the banking system runs out of dollars. Subsequently, the upward trend for the main currency pair recovered, and it reached the level of 1.25.
There was a very similar picture in the fall of 2020. The same rapid rise of the Euro to $1.2 and the subsequent verbal interventions of the ECB's chief economist, Philip lane, who was later joined by Christine Lagarde and other colleagues on the Governing Council. The same increased demand for the US dollar, which was, however, associated with a deterioration in global risk appetite and increased interest in safe-haven assets due to the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe and increased turbulence in the US stock indexes. As a result, both EUR/USD charts are becoming more and more similar to each other.
Dynamics of EUR / USD in 2017 and 2020:
If history really repeats itself, then the 1.15-1.16 area will be a good springboard for a bullish attack. And the goal can be considered at the 1.25 mark.
In my opinion, the quotes of the main currency pair can fall even lower, but later you can count on the recovery of the upward trend. This assumption is based on expectations of a continued pullback in the S&P 500. The stock market is sensitive to the US index of economic surprises, which recently reached a historic high, but is likely to fall in the near future. Reasons? The exhaustion of fiscal stimulus, which will lead to the fact that the actual data for the US will be weaker than forecasts.
Dynamics of the S&P 500 and the index of economic surprises:
Thus, what we are currently seeing in the EUR/USD pair is nothing more than a correction to the bullish trend. I believe that the second wave of COVID-19 will not be as terrible as analysts and epidemiologists are currently trying to imagine. As a result, the Euro trumps will return. At the same time, the pullback of the main currency pair to the supports at 1.158, 1.149, and 1.141 should be used to form long-term long positions.
EUR / USD, Daily chart:
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