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The dollar may take a pause in corrective growth this week. At the same time, negative factors that provoke investors to move to more reliable assets remain. On Monday, the USD index was trading near a 2-month peak, as doubts about the economic recovery remain ahead of a flood of statistical data and political events in the US. However, the dollar failed to maintain its position. It should be noted that the indicator touched a strong resistance at 94.6. Although, it will not be easy to pass it and consolidate higher. It is possible that dollar bulls may not succeed.
Monday, as is often the case, was light, which did not lead to significant changes in the main instruments. Tuesday, on the other hand, will be more eventful. First, a debate is expected. Second, markets will evaluate updated data on consumer confidence in the US. Meanwhile, the official nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday. Statistics from the labor market may disappoint, which will increase the chances of more rapid adoption of new anti-crisis measures. With this development, the US dollar risks ending the week among the outsiders.
The main currency pair is still near 2-month lows. If everything is calm today, then the news flow for this pair will be saturated. In addition to the block of statistics, the US employment market will attract attention to data on US GDP for the second quarter. This will be the final assessment of the economic downturn. If the final figure does not provide additional reasons for pessimism, the dollar can get some support. The worst is already taken into account in the quotes.
If you pay attention to the technical side of the matter, EUR / USD is currently trading in the structure of the third wave of decline, the goal is 1.1600. Next, a small correction is expected to the level of 1.1740, and then there may be another wave of decline in the area of the 15th figure. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD oscillator.
The dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate is similar to the dynamics of EUR/USD. However, there is a slight difference: the pound is too oversold on fears of a no-deal Brexit. This negative should withdraw for a while, and the short-term dynamics of the pound against the dollar should be better than that of the euro.
The GBP / USD pair gained more than 1% of its value on Monday. Investors have raised hopes that the UK will be able to conclude a trade deal with the European Union by October or avoid a chaotic exit from the bloc for a number of other reasons.
Moreover, the crucial week of negotiations begins on Monday. Earlier, a diplomat from the European Union made it clear that the mood here was "slightly better" after the British Brexit leader Michael Gove expressed confidence in a trade deal.
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