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Saudi Arabia seems to be optimistic on the immediate future of oil prices, foreseeing a rise to $ 50 per barrel for the next three years.
"Using our own analysis and calculations of the distribution of government revenues, we believe that oil will average a price of $ 50 from 2020 to 2023," said Farouk Soussa, analyst at the Goldman Sachs.
Such a quote is already 25% more than the current price, however, it is still far below the pre-pandemic level, as well as the amount needed by Saudi Arabia to balance its budget.
The calculations of Goldman Sachs, as well as EFG Hermes, say that Saudi Arabia would need oil to range $ 50 to $ 55 a barrel, but the calculations of the International Monetary Fund said that a price of $ 66 or higher is more appropriate.
IMF break-even prices for oil (as of April 2020):
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Iran | 244 | 389 | 320 |
| Iraq | 56 | 60 | 54 |
| Kuwait | 53 | 61 | 60 |
| Saudi arabia | 83 | 76 | 66 |
| UAE | 67 | 69 | 61 |
Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia's price caveat stems from the prediction that the era of rising global energy demand is coming to an end barely a decade from now. Naturally, many countries are worried about this forecast.
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