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The news regarding D. Trump's coronavirus illness is starting to recede to the second or even third plan. Many political scientists are beginning to claim that this was a staged political election campaign, as he began to unusually feel good quickly. But time will tell whether this is true or not. Meanwhile, investors' attention in financial markets is still focused on whether new stimulus measures will be introduced in the United States or not.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives, N. Pelosi, who stated yesterday that she would not support measures to help airlines initiated by D. Trump somewhat restrained the rally in the US stock market, but investors continue to be sure that they will be adopted sooner or later, which is due to several reasons.
First, the US economy can no longer actually exist without financial assistance, as Jerome Powell, Fed's head, insisted on.The desire of the authorities to keep everything and not lose anything is unrealistic, which leads to the state of disadvantage. Moreover, earlier measures taken to help the economy after the 2008-09 crisis did not solve the deep structural problems of the US economy, but only delayed the problem. Now, since this year started, more incentive measures have been taken to contain COVID-19 pandemic, which have simply ended in nothing. Therefore, the markets are demanding more.
Second, whoever wins the US presidential race has no choice but to give more aid packages to its citizens, which is expected to run out and then everything will start all over again.
In fact, repetitive measures to support the economy, which are working less and less on each round, can lead to a state of permanent weakness of the US currency. The only thing that keeps it from falling badly is the desire of other world Central Banks to weaken the rates of their national currencies and the fact that the USD is still the world's reserve currency.
We believe that the overall picture on the currency markets will not change significantly over the following week. The expectation of new stimulus measures in the US will remain the main negative factor for the US dollar, but its weakening will be restrained by the unclear result of the US presidential election.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate in a narrow range of 1.1725-1.1780. If it breaks above 1.1780, it will continue to rise to the level of 1.1810.
The USD/CAD pair may correct up to 1.3200. If it keeps below this level, it will resume its decline to the level of 1.3140.
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