09.10.202011:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on October 9, 2020

Yesterday's trading on EUR/USD was held without a clear focus. There were no significant changes in the technical picture. The main currency pair of the Forex market is still in standby mode and consolidation continues. Usually, this price behavior is followed by a fairly strong directed movement in one direction. However, the chances that this will happen on the last day of weekly trading are quite small, however, everything happens in the market, so I would not completely exclude this possibility today.

At this stage of time, market participants are still focused on news about the new fiscal stimulus in the United States of America, which will help eliminate the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the meantime, negotiations on a new package of measures to support the national economy between the administration of Donald Trump and the Democrats are extremely difficult. The American president, in his characteristic manner, now threatens to stop all negotiations with his opponents from the democratic camp, then insists on more significant stimulation of the world's leading economy to compensate for the economic losses that have appeared as a result of the coronavirus epidemic.

Yesterday was not full of a large flow of information, maybe that's why the price dynamics of the euro/dollar was quite poor. As for the macroeconomic statistics published on Thursday, initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States increased more than the forecast of 820,000, and seasonally adjusted for the last week amounted to 840,000. Taking into account the swings in macroeconomic indicators that have become possible due to the impact on the US economy of COVID-19, the difference between the forecast and actual values is not so great, however, it is present. From today's events, we can only highlight data from the United States on stocks of goods in wholesale warehouses, although I do not think that this indicator can have a significant impact on the price dynamics of the main currency pair, as well as on the results of the closing of weekly trading. Based on this assumption, there is nothing else to do but turn your eyes to the price charts and analyze the course of today's trading and the prospects for completing the current five-day trading period.

Daily

As can be seen on the daily chart, the euro/dollar continues to trade in the price range of 1.1915-1.1612. At the same time, the price is approximately in the middle of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which only adds uncertainty to the further direction of the exchange rate. It has been repeatedly noted that the prospects for the price movement of the euro/dollar may depend on which way the pair will come out of the cloud, which in itself is considered a zone of uncertainty. The upper border of the cloud is now at 1.1870, and the lower border is at 1.1597. At the same time, the black 89 exponential moving average, which is located near the lower border of the cloud, ensures the exit down. In my opinion, the bulls have an even more difficult task for the instrument. To approach the upper border of the cloud and try to break through it, you first need to pass up the 50 simple moving average and the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, which are located in the area of 1.1780-1.1799. At the end of this article, euro bulls are again trying to overcome the Kijun line. It is characteristic that previous attempts to do this were not successful. The euro needs to lower the price below Tenkan (1.1734), and then consolidate trading on the pair under a significant level of 1.1700. In general, both of them have difficult tasks and have something to work on. Judging by the daily chart, it is difficult to determine the positioning for EUR/USD.

H4

Looking at a lower timeframe, for those who want to open new positions today, I can recommend considering purchases after a decrease in the accumulation of moving averages and to the support level - this is the price zone of 1.1755-1.1725. Sales can be tried with the next unsuccessful attempts to go up another fairly strong and important level of 1.1800. In both cases, I do not recommend setting large goals and opening trades without the appearance of confirmation signals.