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In the United States, the focus of the market has completely shifted to the results of the presidential elections, while in Europe, the impact of coronavirus on the economic activity of entire countries is getting more important.
The hopes of many countries globally that there will not be a second wave of COVID-19, or that this will no longer have the same negative impact as it did this spring were not justified. The outbreak in Britain has already made us think about a multi-level quarantine system that divides the country, and which will have fairly strict rules. In continental Europe, similar processes are being held.
Against the backdrop of these events – the US presidential elections and the situation with COVID-19, investors stopped responding to the economic data that continues to indicate that the world economy is still in a state of free fall. It is still a mystery when will this end.
Now, the currency market is trying to determine where to move and the focus remains on the weak dollar, which is reflected in the growth of major currencies against it. If we weigh all the pros and cons, investors and the market reasonably believe that the current ultra-soft monetary policy of the Fed and the US Treasury, as well as the expected new incentives after the presidential election, will continue to have a weakening effect on the US currency.
Assessing such markets' mood, we believe that even the desire of other world central banks to somehow stimulate their national economies and weaken exchange rates in order to make their exports more competitive, will be outweighed by huge dollar supply in the global financial system. In fact, we are witnessing the process of adsorption of financial resources in the United States. The local stock market remains the most attractive and this process will be supported by low interest rates and an anticipated new aid package. We believe that it will continue until the US presidential elections, which means that the dollar will continue to weaken.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair remains in a short-term upward trend. If it holds above the level of 1.1790, we should expect it to rise first to 1.1830 and then to 1.1885.
The USD/CAD pair also remains in a short-term downward trend. The expectation of Biden's victory in the presidential election suggests a rise in crude oil prices, which will benefit the exchange rate of the Canadian currency, which is a commodity. A price drop below 1.3100, in turn, will open the way for the pair to decline to 1.3040.
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