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EUR/USD – 1H.
On November 12, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 50.0% 91.1761) and began the growth process, consolidating above the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.1798). Thus, the growth process can be continued towards the next corrective level of 23.6% (1.1845). Closing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the US currency and resume falling towards the level of 50.0%. Yesterday, two speeches were made by the heads of the world's leading central banks - Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde. However, none of them resonated in the markets, as both heads did not talk about monetary policy. They talked about a new vaccine against COVID-2019 from the American company Pfizer. Powell was more realistic in his forecasts and expectations. He said the news of an effective vaccine is encouraging, however, the coming months will still be very difficult. Probably Fed President was referring to the economy and life in the context of the pandemic as a whole. I would like to note that the new vaccine is now almost the only one with proven effectiveness, however, it is extremely "complex" and "capricious" in application and transportation. It requires ultra-low temperatures for storage and transportation. For the vaccine to work, you need at least two doses. If stored incorrectly, the vaccine loses all its medicinal properties. To defeat the pandemic, it is necessary to vaccinate almost the entire population of the planet, which is impossible or unlikely. Thus, even the creation of a vaccine does not mean that the world will return to normal life in the coming months.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the upper border of the side corridor and, in general, continue the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729) and the lower border of the corridor. A rebound of the pair's quotes from the level of 127.2% will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the upper border of the corridor. Fixing under the side corridor will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the US dollar and consolidated under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825). However, this level remains weak, and I recommend paying more attention to the lower charts, which respond more quickly to changes in the market.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term. In the short term, a drop is preferable.
Overview of fundamentals:
On November 12, the European Union released a report on industrial production, which was much weaker than traders' expectations. In America, the inflation report was released, which also did not impress.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - change in GDP (10:00 GMT).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT).
On November 13, the EU calendar includes a rather important report on GDP. In America, only minor news today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was quite informative. The most important category of "Non-commercial" traders got rid of another 9 thousand long contracts during the reporting week (-12 thousand a week earlier), so speculators continue to get rid of purchases of the euro currency. At the same time, they are also increasing short-contracts, the total number of which has increased by 7.8 thousand. Thus, the strengthening of the "bearish" mood on the face. Based on this, I could conclude that the European currency will fall further, but last week's trading may change the mood of major traders dramatically. The euro has grown by 250 points over the past week, but this growth is not taken into account in the COT report. Only the next report will show how big traders traded after November 2.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1761 and 1.1723, if the pair closes at the level of 38.2% (1.1798) on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair are now possible with a target of 1.1845, as the quotes completed a close above the level of 38.2% (1.1798) on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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