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Signs of collision between Republicans and Democrats appeared in the media, not long after the US Supreme Court dismissed Texas and other 17 states. In turn, the US Congress has made significant progress in resolving the new stimulus package even before the Christmas break. Reuters reported that the package under discussion could be split in two – one of which would only include proposed funding of $ 160 billion for state and local governments (a key Democratic demand) along with protecting employer liability (a key Republican demand), while the second one will cover the remaining $ 750 billion spending proposal. By doing so, there is a consensus between the two parties.
This stimulus package will be most likely coordinated with the Fed's planned measures. The meeting will start today and the markets will wait for the result with a view to maintain a whole approach of "give the high contracting parties as much money as they need", which will lead to a full-fledged Christmas rally – an increase in the euro and commodity prices and a decline in the dollar against a basket of currencies. Things will be clearer tomorrow.
NZD/USD
ANZ Bank forecasts a technical double-dip recession by the end of 2020, but remains generally optimistic about the outlook for the New Zealand economy. It expects an improvement in monetary policy, as New Zealand (as well as Australia) went through a much calmer winter in the southern hemisphere than it feared six months ago. In addition, the onset of the summer period will significantly lower the risks of a new wave of restrictions and accelerate the pace of recovery. Thus, the scenario for another wave of COVID-19, associated by lockdown is no longer the main one.
New Zealand dollar's net long position increased by 103 million to 743 million over the last reporting week. The trend looks stable, the estimated fair price is rising, and so the growth of the indicated currency is fundamentally justified.
However, there will be a correction if the publication of data on GDP on December 17 and foreign trade on December 18 turns out to be worse than forecasted. In this case, a pullback to the support zone of 0.6940/60 is possible, but it will be temporary and will give an opportunity to buy from more favorable positions. The priority is still the scenario of continued growth in order to consolidate above the resistance level of 0.7147.
AUD/USD
The advantage over the US dollar does not look confident yet, even though the target price is growing, and the Australian dollar has updated its two-year high on the spot. The CME is still bearish, although declining. Nevertheless, the pace of reduction is not high – only 47 million for the reporting week, while the net short position is 749 million. It can be said that there is no stable trend to buy AUD.
The possible reason for this is the ongoing trade tensions between Australia and China. The previous crises have usually been resolved quite quickly, while the current one has been delayed. However, markets are still reacting weakly due to the assumption that there is hope that the parties will refrain from escalation, since iron ore is not yet affected by disagreements.
On Thursday, November employment data will be published. Strong values are expected as quarantine restrictions are lifted in the key state of Victoria and the latest new job data from mid-October to mid-November showed a marked decline.
Meanwhile, RBA's minutes of their December 1 meeting published this morning, maintained a positive tone, emphasizing on the steady growth of household consumption. However, there is no specifics about possible changes in monetary policy due to several factors: there is a high degree of uncertainty in the world, the Australian economy is still generallyrecovering in accordance with forecasts, the measures taken earlier led to a decline in the yield curve, and so, there is no reason to change anything at the current stage.
The situation is generally favorable for the Australian dollar. The RBA believes that an increase in the rate until inflation reaches a steady level of 2-3% is impractical, and this requires a clearly higher wage growth than it is now. Hence, they estimated that the range for maintaining the current monetary policy is about 3 years, which makes the AUD prospects quite interesting.
Technically, the AUD/USD pair aims to rise. A possible pullback to the support level of 0.7414 will be corrective and will serve as an excellent opportunity to buy. Now, we expect the resistance 0.7630/40 to be tested successfully.
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