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Only few days are left before Brexit, but the negotiations are hanging by a thread, leading traders to speculate on the daily market.
This week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in an attempt to break the existing deadlock in the negotiations. The UK put forward a proposal that the production volume of EU vessels (in UK fishing waters) should be reduced to 30%, which is significantly less than the 60% that the UK initially insisted.
However, the bloc still refused to accept the cut and said it is still difficult for countries like France and Denmark to accept.
In turn, late Tuesday night, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said both sides will try to make the last leap.
Robert Peston, editor of ITV News, also said that perhaps, Wednesday will be a key day for the agreement.
Earlier, officials said that negotiations could continue after Christmas or completely fail. Some said the decision rests with Johnson, while others claimed that the burden rests with the EU.
But since only 8 days are left before Brexit and key issues are still not settled, many are losing hope that a deal will be signed.
Therefore, in the GBP / USD chart, quotes have decreased to 1.3300, after which movement stopped and a rebound occurred.
The dollar clearly benefited from this event, aside from the fact that positive statistics came out from the US - the final GDP data was better than expected.
As for the market dynamics on December 22, it to 165 points, which is 25% higher than the average level. The activity is so high that traders can take at least 100 pips of profit, which is quite rare in the market. The ratio of speculative transactions is also high and is also indicated by the very high dynamics.
Today, data on US jobless claims will be published.
Repeated applications are expected to increase by 50,000 and amount to 5,558,000.
Initial applications, meanwhile, are expected to remain unchanged at 885,000.
Data on orders for durable goods will also be released, and experts expect it to increase by only 0.6%.
But if the report really comes out as such, the position of the US dollar will weaken, thereby leading to its decline in the market.
Anyhow, the main motivator for speculative activity, as before, is news about Brexit. Therefore, the nearing deadline of negotiations will lead to further exacerbation of speculative positions, and any news, rumor or statement will lead to an instant reaction in the market.
In particular, positive news will lead to the strengthening of the British pound, while negative news will lead to a sharp decline.
If economic reports from the US come out worse than the forecasts, there is a chance that GBP / USD will grow to 1.3470.
Indicator analysis
Looking at the different segments of the time frames (TF), it is clear that the indicators are showing a buy signal due to the correction. However, it should also be remembered that indicators highly influenced by the news can be misleading.
Volatility is measured relative to the average daily fluctuations, which are calculated every Month / Quarter / Year.
(The dynamics for today is calculated, all while taking into account the time this article is published)
Volatility is currently at 85 points, which is very good for the start of the European session. It is expected that volatility will continue to grow due to the dense information flow and Brexit expectations.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.3650 **; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.
Support Zones: 1.3300 **; 1.3000 ***; 1.2840 / 1.2860 / 1.2885; 1.2770 **; 1.2620; 1.2500; 1.2350 **; 1.2250; 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957).
* Periodic level
** Range level
*** Psychological level
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