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Today's review of the USD/JPY currency pair will focus on the technical picture. Usually, the review of the weekly chart takes place on Mondays, after the closing of trading of the previous five-day period. However, today, we will make an exception for a better understanding of what is happening. Moreover, there is a reason for this.
Weekly
So, following the results of trading on January 4-8, a reversal model of the candle analysis "Bullish Absorption" appeared on the weekly timeframe. This model is quite strong and is often worked out by the market, and if we take into account that similar reversal signals have appeared for some other major currency pairs, we can assume that the US dollar has completed its downward cycle and is ready to start strengthening across a wide range of the market.
The beginning of trading this week confirmed this assumption, however, reaching the level of 104.40, the bulls lost all their hard-earned gains, and at the time of writing, the dollar/yen is trading with a slight decrease near 103.70. In the previous review for this currency pair, there was a strong resistance of sellers in the area of 104.00-104.40. Also, the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator provides additional and very significant resistance to attempts to break above the area of 104.00-104.40. It is worth paying attention to the support level of 103.18, which the bears on USD/JPY failed to breakthrough. As you can see on the chart, no single candle has closed below this level. Taking into account the minimum values of the previous weekly trading at 102.60, as well as the historical strength of this technical level, strong support is held in the area of 103.20-102.60, and only an update of the previous lows will signal that the players on the downgrade still have the "powder in their flasks" and the decline will continue. In the meantime, given the reversal candle model "bullish absorption", in my personal opinion, there are more chances for the implementation of an upward scenario. However, there are many strong resistances at the top, and market sentiment has recently tended to change quite frequently, so an alternative downward scenario cannot be completely ruled out.
Daily
On the daily chart, after a four-day growth, the pair met strong resistance when trying to enter the limits of the Ichimoku indicator cloud. There was a reversal on the decline, which was observed in yesterday's trading. It is worth noting that the drop was quite significant. Nevertheless, today's attempts by the bears to continue the pressure on the course, at the time of completion of this article, were limited to the daily Tenkan and Kijun lines. As repeatedly noted earlier, signals on higher timeframes have greater strength and chances to work out, and therefore I believe that the main trading idea for USD/JPY is still buying. I believe that yesterday's price decline and today's support for the Tenkan and Kijun lines is a very good option for opening purchases at reasonable prices. I suggest that you try to buy a pair after fixing above 103.70, on a rollback to this level, or more aggressively and riskily, at the current market price. For an alternative option, you need to see the reversal patterns of candle analysis in the price zone of resistance 104.00-104.40 on the four-hour and (or) hourly charts, and then sell with small targets in the area of 103.70. So far, for this currency pair, these are the thoughts and suggestions.
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