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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair fell yesterday to the lower border of the downward trend corridor and the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3625). The rebound from both of these obstacles caused the pair to turn in favor of the British dollar and resume growth in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3744), which was reached this night. The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the levels of 1.3698 and 1.3625. And the growth of the British dollar yesterday was not groundless. Early in the morning, three reports were released in the UK at once and all three were better than traders expected. The unemployment rate rose. In November, it was 5.0%, which is not so much in times of global crisis. The number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by only 7 thousand. The level of wages increased by 3.6%, although an increase of 2.9-3.2% was expected. Thus, the pound sterling, which has been growing recently and without any statistics, received additional motivation to continue growing and returned to the maximum price values over the past few years. Now bull traders need to close the pair above the level of 1.3744, then the British dollar will have an excellent opportunity to grow even stronger. It should also be said that the situation with the coronavirus in the UK has started to improve slightly and Prime Minister Boris Johnson even said that in mid-February, some quarantine measures may be relaxed or lifted.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the ascending trend line and rebound from it with a reversal in favor of the British dollar. Thus, the pair again seriously increased its chances of continuing the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977). Closing quotes below the trend line will change the mood of traders to "bearish" and will allow you to count on the pair falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3481).
GBP/USD - Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), and then rebound from it. Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).
GBP/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, several important reports were released in the UK, which helped the British dollar to make a return to the highs for several years.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (13:30 GMT).
US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (19:00 GMT).
US - FOMC accompanying statement (19:00 GMT).
US - FOMC press conference (19:30 GMT).
On January 27, the calendar of economic events in the UK is empty, so all attention is on the Fed meeting and the report on orders for long-term goods.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from January 19 showed not too big changes in the mood of large traders. The most interesting category of "Non-commercial" traders for the reporting period reduced 2,020 long contracts and 3,105 short contracts. Thus, it can even be said that the mood of speculators has become more "bullish". Nevertheless, it was again about reducing the number of contracts, not increasing them. The Briton is still a "dark horse" for major players, from which it is unclear what to expect in the coming year. Now the pound is growing and has been growing for a long time and this is even more alarming, given the problems of the British economy. However, based only on the COT report, so far we can only conclude that the growth of the British dollar can continue.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to make new purchases of the British dollar when rebounding from the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3698 and 1.3744. Both goals have been worked out. New purchases at the close above 1.3744 with a target of 1.3820. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling when closing quotes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3481.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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