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The wave pattern of the upward trend still has a completed five-wave form. Thus, the current wave marking implies the formation of a new downward trend section. If so, the pair may continue to decline around the 19th and 18th mark. So far, there are no necessary preconditions to continue the construction of the upward section of the trend.
The wave pattern in the smaller time frame also indicates that the section of the upward trend is completed. If the low of wave 4 is successfully broken, it may indicate that the pair is ready to form the low of a three-wave downward trend. The first wave of the new section of trend acquired a 5-wave form, while the second one gained a 3-wave. Thus, we can now expect the pair to decline within the supposed third wave. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through the high of wave 2 will indicate that the market is not ready to further buy the dollar and the upward trend may become more complicated.
The most important event of the whole week will be held today – the Fed meeting. Tonight, the FRS will announce the results of its two-day meeting, and its Chairman, Jerome Powell, will speak at a press conference. Markets expect the Fed to maintain all the parameters of monetary policy that would make it very at ease. It is unlikely that the rates, programs for repurchasing assets and government securities will be changed. Perhaps, the regulator will focus more on the three most important parameters of the state of the economy: employment, inflation and GDP. It should be recalled that the last Nonfarm Payrolls report failed, which amounted to 140,000 jobs. In January, inflation rose from 1.2% to 1.4% y / y. GDP, in turn, recovered in the third quarter at 31.4% and will continue to do so in the fourth quarter, as there was no repeated lockdown in the United States. Assessing the economic situation, it has not deteriorated since the Fed's last meeting, so it hardly makes sense for Powell and the company to change anything in the current monetary policy. Thus, Powell's press conference, where he can provide any new information, will be more significant.
In addition to the Fed meeting, data on durable goods orders will be released today. It is not as important as the Fed meeting, but it can also have a certain impact on the market. In general, the fate of the US currency for the next few weeks, and maybe months will be determined today. If the high of the presumed wave 2 is updated, and it is very easy to do this, since there are only 30 points left before it, it will break the inner wave structure of wave 2 and all the wave marking will most likely require corrections, which can resume the growth of the quotes.
Overall conclusion and recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair presumably completed forming the upward trend. Thus, it is now suggested to sell the pair with targets located near the 20th and 19th mark for each new downward signal of the MACD indicator, expecting the formation of wave 3. However, the scenario of the quotes' further decline might be cancelled if wave 2 was broken.
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