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Gold had its worst start in 10 years on the back of an unexpected strengthening of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields for many investors. In January, precious metal quotes sank by 3%, which was the worst result since 2011. Let me remind you that it was in that year that the previous record high of $1921 per ounce was recorded, after which the upward trend was broken and the XAU/USD quotes fell to $1050 in 2015. The fact that the global economy is currently recovering from a recession makes it possible to draw analogies.
Gold dynamics in January
Of course, investors are more interested in watching the ups and downs of events in the silver market, which, due to the activity of newbie traders from the social sharing platform Reddit, quickly soared to $30 an ounce, and then, against the background of increasing CME margin requirements, went down from heaven to earth than to contemplate the trampling of gold in a narrow trading range of $1810-1870. Inspired by the victory over the hedge funds in the battle for GameStop, the crowd felt invulnerable, but financial markets are quick to put in place those who go overboard.
As for the gold, any consolidation is followed by explosive moves, and traders should keep their finger on the pulse in anticipation of a breakout. The question is where exactly gold intends to go. In my opinion, the answer to it should be sought in the international currency market.
In early 2021, most investors were confident in the bearish outlook for the US dollar. A scenario of defeating COVID-19, a booming global economy, and falling safe-haven currencies seemed highly likely, but vaccine proliferation problems and a double recession in the eurozone undermined confidence in the euro. The share of the single European currency in the structure of the USD index is 57%, so it is not surprising that the fall in EUR/USD quotes is perceived as the main driver of the XAU/USD peak. Gold is considered to be the anti-dollar. And not only because it is quoted in US currency.
According to IMF forecasts, by the end of 2021, the US economy will be 1.5% larger than at the end of 2019, and the GDP of the eurozone will be 3.3% less. At current rates of vaccination, the US will vaccinate 60% of the population against COVID-19 by October, and countries such as Germany and Italy will not be able to do so until the end of 2022. If the EUR/USD upward trend is truly broken, the XAU/USD bulls will have a hard time.
Gold fans can count on an increase in the speed of the vaccine campaign in Europe and the fact that the economy of the currency bloc has adapted to the pandemic. There are still chances of a recovery in the upward trend in the main currency pair, so it is too early for bulls on precious metals to lose hope.
Technically, a Broadening Wedge pattern may form on the daily gold chart, which will be a strong argument in favor of selling on a breakout of support at $1810-1815 per ounce. On the contrary, the return of futures quotes to the upper boundary of the consolidation range of $1810-1870, followed by its successful assault, is a reason for the formation of long positions.
Gold, daily chart
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