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Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued the upward movement for most of the day (Friday), which, frankly, we did not expect. Take note that the markets nearly ignore all of the macroeconomic reports, therefore, on the one hand, the trading process is facilitated, since only technical signals need to be taken into account, on the other hand, we are deprived of an important forecasting tool. However, let's look at the technical picture first. Last Friday, the euro/dollar pair only turned down towards the very end of the day. Thanks to this reversal, we were able to form a new downward trend line and we also have another upward trend line. Thus, the quotes turned out to be stuck between two lines, in a triangle. Since we have a rebound off the upper trend line, we now expect a decline to the lower trend line. In our last review, we did not recommend buying the pair, but we did advise you to sell it if we receive signals from the MACD indicator. There were two of them on February 19. The first one turned out to be false, since the price did not continue to move down after it was created. Novice traders could have lost about 20 points on it. The second one turned out to be more accurate and still remains relevant. According to it, the profit level is about 15 points at the moment, but we expect quotes to fall on Monday. Thus, beginners can still get several dozen points of profit on it if the downward movement continues.
The macroeconomic background was "as usual" on Friday. The European Union published business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors. These reports cannot be called extremely important, but still the markets could react to them. Moreover, business activity in the service sector began to decline again and fell from 45.4 to 44.7. This means that the service sector is still experiencing problems due to quarantine restrictions and will pull down GDP and economic recovery. This is a bad sign for the European economy, but, as we can see, traders were not at all embarrassed and did not start selling the euro. Thus, the statistics were again ignored.
No important and interesting macroeconomic events planned in either the EU or the US on Monday, and this is probably for the best. Following the banal logic, the corrective downward movement may begin (continue) on Monday, which we are counting on.
Possible scenarios on February 22:
1) Long positions are currently relevant, but we recommend considering them near the lower trend line. In case of a rebound from it, or a buy signal from MACD near it. In this case, you are advised to open long positions with targets around the level of 1.2100 or slightly higher.
2) Trading for a fall is also relevant at the moment. A sell signal already formed on Friday and it is recommended to maintain it on Monday. Most likely, we will see the euro drop by at least another 20-30 points. There can be low volatility movements at night, so we recommend waiting for the morning in order to assess the profitability of this signal. Stop Loss can be moved to breakeven.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over a long period of time.
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