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Yesterday, investors listened with particular interest to the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The US central bank finally confirmed its concerns about the development of inflationary processes. And although Powell once again assured the Fed's commitment to a soft policy (this is still obvious, because it is necessary to finance the Biden plan), the message to shift the mood to fight inflation (that is, increase the rate) was sent.
Sales of new homes in the US in the January estimate increased from 885,000 to 923,000. GDP for the fourth quarter in the second estimate is expected to be revised to 4.2%. The volume of orders for durable goods in January is expected to grow by 1.1%. The likelihood of another attack on support has increased.
Futures rates on federal funds (30-Day Federal Funds Futures) reluctantly, but still rise. This can be seen in the contracts of the second half of the year. This means that investors are still setting expectations of a rate hike at the end of the year.
The closest technical support is the MACD indicator line at 1.2105. Yesterday, the lower shadow did not reach this line by several points. Getting the price to settle below it opens the target level of 1.2023 (February 17 low), then 1.1915. But while we are waiting for the development of events. The leading Marlin oscillator is turning down for the daily timescale.
The situation is still rising on the four-hour chart, but Marlin is in a hurry to penetrate the negative trend zone. Visually, this can happen at the moment when the price breaks the MACD line at 1.2130. This level is now becoming a signal for a succeeding movement to the downside.
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