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EUR/USD – 1H.
On March 1, the EUR/USD pair continued the fall of quotes. The closing of the pair's exchange rate under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.2046) allows us to count on a further drop in quotes in the direction of the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.1952). But the very fall of the pair is already a serious surprise. In the last few days, there have been several news items that could have a beneficial effect on the dollar, but this is an open question. Such a fall, during which there are no pullbacks or corrections, could be caused either by some extremely important event or by a large-scale strategy of traders. If traders for any reason decided that they would buy dollars in the near future, this could cause such a strong growth of the dollar.
However, it is still unclear exactly what events could have changed the mood of traders so sharply to "bearish". The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and strong statistics from America are significant factors, but doubts remain. On Monday, the European Union released the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which practically did not differ from the previous value. The ISM manufacturing index in the US was also higher than the forecast – 60.8, the same applies to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector – 58.6. However, given that the pair either stood still or was in the process of falling all day, it can be assumed that traders did not pay much attention to these reports.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes fell to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal of the pair in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the level of 1.2223. Closing quotes below the level of 161.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Today, the divergence is not observed in any of the indicators.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the third breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, and this time it does not look false. Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 1, the European Union and the United States released indices of business activity in the areas of production, as well as a speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of consumer prices (10:00 GMT).
On March 2, the European Union will release an inflation report, and in the United States - the calendar of economic events will be empty. Most likely, the influence of the fundamental background will be low today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the third week in a row, it turns out to be very calm. There are no major changes in the mood of traders. The most important category of Non-commercial traders opened 6.5 thousand long and 6.6 thousand short contracts. The "Commercial" category of traders opened 15 thousand long and 17 thousand short contracts. That is, in general, during the reporting week, the major players made purchases and sales in equal proportions. In the long term, the euro continues to show growth, and the number of long contracts focused on the hands of speculators exceeds the number of short contracts by three times. Therefore, to break the upward trend, it is necessary that speculators massively open sales, which is not yet observed.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Sales of the pair were recommended at the close of quotes under the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2046) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1952. Also, sales of the pair are recommended when closing under the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart with the same goal. New purchases of the pair are recommended when the quotes rebound from the level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2046 and 1.2104.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to provide current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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