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The US currency remains careful, slightly yielding to the European one ahead of the next Fed meeting. According to experts, the dynamics of the USD is multi-directional, which means it is ready to move in any direction.
On Tuesday morning, the US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, but declined against the Euro currency. The EUR/USD pair is trading around the level of 1.1938, which is much higher than the close of the previous session: 1.1928. As for the dollar index, that is, the USD exchange rate against a basket of currencies of six countries (key trading partners of the US), it declined by 0.03%, reporting to 91.8 points.
ING bank analysts are sure that the possibility of extending quarantine restrictions in Europe are affecting euro's short and medium term prospects. Currently, the European currency is down by 0.2% against the US dollar, although the latter has slightly yielded to its counterpart in the EUR/USD pair. Based on their calculations, the single currency will only have minimal loss, as market players have significantly reduced their long positions. The bank highlighted that this indicates the resumption of the balance in the market and in the EUR/USD pair. According to experts, maintaining the current positions will prevent the euro from declining to the level of 1.1900 and below.
Experts consider the US Fed's next meeting to be the main event of the week. After its results, the volume of the asset repurchase program is expected to be unchanged, and the interest rate will be at the minimum level (0-0.25% per annum). At the same time, the market expects updated economic forecasts from the regulator. Moreover, traders and investors will closely monitor the upcoming comments of Fed Chairman, J. Powell, on the sharp growth in US government bond yields.
It should be noted that the results of the FRS meeting will determine the closest dynamics of the US dollar. Meanwhile, for the European one, analysts believe that the current macro statistics for the eurozone will contribute to this. Today, we expect the report on the index of investor confidence in the German economy. Specialists expect the March indicator to rise by 74 points, which is higher than the level of February (71.2 points). According to Zach Pandl, Co-Chair of the Global Currency Department at The Goldman Sachs, FOMC's upcoming meeting (Federal Open Market Committee) will be decisive for the mid-term dynamics of the US currency. Based on its results, the national currency will choose a further direction, considering the dynamics of its rival in the EUR/USD pair.
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