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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair was trading erratically and in an unreasonable manner on Tuesday, March 30. On the other hand, there were no important fundamental messages or macroeconomic reports from either the US or in the UK on that day. So what to expect from the pair? A total flat? Unfortunately, during the past day, traders were very carelessly working out the most important lines and levels. Thus, the clarity on opening trade transactions left much to be desired. But first things first. In the European trading session, the bears brought the pair to the Kijun-sen line twice, which laid at the 1.3756 level. The pair traded near this line for an hour for the first time, not making it clear whether the breakthrough happened or not? As a result, the quotes moved up and an hour later they tried to surpass this line again, this time they were more successful. However, even if we regard the first meeting of the price and the Kijun-sen line as a rebound, and the second as a breakthrough, we still failed to earn money on either the first or the second deal. None of the target levels have been met. Not a single new signal generated in the US session. Thus, traders could have received a small loss on the first deal, and go to zero on the second, as the price passed down by 20 points which made it possible to set Stop Loss to breakeven. Although towards the end of the working day, traders could manually take profits, since the likelihood of a further fall to the 1.3677 level at night was, for obvious reasons, low. In this case, 30-40 points could be earned.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, you can see that the pound/dollar pair surpassed the critical Kijun-sen line on Tuesday, and earlier - the upward trend line. Therefore, at the moment it is more relevant to trade bearish with the nearest target, the extremum level of 1.3678, which was formed just a few days ago. The UK will publish a report on GDP for the fourth quarter on Wednesday, but traders are already familiar with the value of this indicator, since this is not its first estimate. However, if the actual value differs from +1.0%, this could provoke a reaction in the pound/dollar pair. And, of course, the report from ADP. In recent months, traders have not really reacted to this report, but now analysts predict a very strong increase in the number of employees in the private sector, which may indicate a higher pace of recovery in the US labor market. Which, of course, is very good for the dollar, which can regain some more positions from the "bitcoin-like" and speculative pound. In general, we continue to recommend trading from important levels and lines, when rebounding from them and surpassing them. A fairly strong level like 1.3755 is located near the Kijun-sen line, from which the pair has rebounded several times already. Thus, a rebound from these resistances from below will allow you to open new short positions, for example. As before, you should set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 15-20 points in the right direction. The nearest level/line is always used as targets.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by only 37 points during the last reporting week (March 16-22). However, this fall is as conditional as the previous week's growth. The pair travels around 37 points in an hour. Thus, it is impossible to say that the pair sharply dropped over the reporting week. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) report talks about quite serious changes. Non-commercial traders closed 3,200 buy contracts (longs) and opened 4,400 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for the pound immediately decreased by 7,600, which is quite a lot and reflects that the bullish mood has significantly weakened among professional traders. Thus, despite the fact that the pound shows a not so strong fall (which is clearly seen in the chart), while the COT reports that more eloquently signal the end of the upward trend. However, an assumption should also be made here. The green and red lines of the first indicator have often changed the direction of movement over the past 6-8 months, so here it just cannot be said that the end of the upward trend has been brewing for a long time. In general, the pound's situation is more complicated and confusing than the euro's. Considering the fact that much will depend on the US economy, both the euro and the pound can resume growth.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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