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EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro settled above the 61.8% Fibonacci correctional level, testing this level (1.2102) with the lower shadow on the daily chart. The dollar received support from the US GDP report for the first quarter, which showed an increase of 6.4%. Perhaps the price could have settled below the 61.8% Fibonacci level if the release coincided with an even bolder expectation of 6.8%. Formally, the price has settled above the level and may move higher to 76.4% in the 1.2200 area.
But the Marlin oscillator warns of a trend reversal - it is already leaning down. Perhaps it will only be a correction with the nearest target at 1.2025 (50.0% Fibonacci level). But if the price settles below the MACD line, respectively, and below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, then this will become the most important factor in the development of a medium-term decline. Further scenarios for price behavior look simple: surpassing yesterday's high at 1.2150 will pull the price to the next 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.2200, a move below yesterday's low will push the price to a lower level at 1.2025.
There are no conditions for a downward reversal on the H4 chart yet. But if pressure is already being created on the higher timeframe, then the first sign of a reversal will be when the price moves under the MACD line (1.2105), which almost coincides with yesterday's low.
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