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EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro rebounded from the target level of 1.2177 and showed a daily decline of 34 points. A divergence was formed with the Marlin oscillator. The divergence can be short-term in its effect on the price, and since it is short in length, it can also become double, that is, the price is able to overshoot yesterday's high. In general, the price is in an unstable range of 1.1986-1.2177, in which it was from December 2020 to February 2021, and it is clear how the price has repeatedly violated it.
The current driving force of counterdollar currencies, most likely, is the strongest growth in metals. A number of metals such as copper, platinum, palladium, tin have exceeded their record highs, while others are approaching them. It is likely that metals are becoming a new speculative instrument, fueling inflation and overheating the market before its collapse, as it happened in 2008 with oil playing the main role (rising to $147 and then falling to $32). This circumstance increases the uncertainty of currencies, and even the Federal Reserve does not need to raise the rate, the collapse will happen on its own. The whole question is in the timing and in the driver - will it become the stock market or is it metals? If today's speeches of the four FOMC members turn out to be soft, this will remotely and indirectly confirm our version.
At the moment, the price rises above yesterday's high of 1.2177 and opens the target at 1.2243 - the upper border of the multi-year price channel. An upward exit from the channel is possible, in this case it will be canceled. Falling below 1.1986 opens the target at 1.1670 - the embedded lower line of this channel.
On the four-hour chart, the overheating that was observed yesterday has now cooled down, the Marlin oscillator has decreased and is now ready to continue rising. The condition for falling to 1.1986 will be for the price to transition under the MACD line in the area of 1.2092. Neutrality is maintained in the 1.2092-1.2177 range.
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