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Did the rise in US consumer prices to the highest level since 2008 scare investors? Judging by the reaction of the financial markets – just a little. Treasury bond yields jumped, stock index corrections intensified, and the dollar strengthened. In order to scare seriously, we need persistently high inflation. How high? And how long? These questions currently concern investors more than whether the Fed is right about the temporary nature of inflationary pressures.
Nordea Markets believes that US consumer prices may jump to 7%-8% during the summer, while Reuters experts believe that the 2.8% mark on the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) within three months will be enough for the Fed to finally get off the sidelines and start discussing the issues of curtailing QE. In any case, time will judge everyone, but I suggest shifting the focus from America to Europe, especially since the economic calendar for the week of May 21 is pushing for this. Releases of data on European inflation and business activity will help to understand how the euro is doing.
Currently, the main reason for the EUR/USD rally is the regular excess of economic surprises in the eurozone of their American counterparts. Forecasts for macro indicators from the U.S. were initially overstated, and such estimates are very difficult to justify. On the contrary, few people expected a positive response from the currency bloc, and it came thanks to accelerated vaccination. The European Commission, looking at the increase in the rate of vaccination companies in the EU, raised the forecast for the eurozone GDP for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3% and for 2022 from 3.8% to 4.4%. Brussels expects the region to return to its pre-crisis level by the end of next year, after a 6.6% decline in 2020.
Dynamics of EUR/USD and the ratio of economic surprises in the Eurozone and the USA
According to Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knoth, the latest forecasts of the ECB should be adjusted upwards. The currency bloc is ready to continue to present pleasant surprises, and one of them, most likely, will be business activity. Bloomberg experts expect the growth of the purchasing managers' index in the service sector in May from 50.5 to 52.0 and its slight slowdown in the manufacturing sector from 62.9 to 62.4. If real data turn out to be better than the estimates, the EUR/USD bulls will have a reason to attack. The same can be said for European inflation, the forecast of 1.6% YoY for which looks very moderate. If the story of the rise of the US CPI in the eurozone is repeated, the euro will be on the crest of success, not the US dollar.
According to Nordea Markets, the fading credit momentum in China allows us to talk about EUR/USD sales on growth. In my opinion, the time for this has not yet come. The couple didn't reach their full potential.
Dynamics of EUR/USD and credit impulse in China
Technically, on the daily chart, the Shark pattern has been transformed into 5-0. The latter model retains its relevance, which allows us to speak of a high probability of the continuation of the upward movement towards the targets by the Wolfe Wave and AB=CD. They are located near the levels of 1.23 and 1.243. We continue to buy the euro against the US dollar.
EUR/USD, Daily chart
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