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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair grew again during the last trading day. On Monday, the pair's rate growth was not as strong as on Friday. However, do not forget that there was news on Friday, and there was no news on Monday. Thus, the pair's quotes performed a return to the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2166). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will favor the US dollar, and some fall in the direction of the level of 1.2117. Closing the quotes above the level of 161.8% will increase the chances of further growth towards the next level of 1.2224. As I said, there was no news or economic reports on Monday. But today, there will be specific entries in the calendar that should attract the attention of traders. In particular, this is the European GDP report for the first quarter and the speech of Christine Lagarde. I believe that both of these events can be easily missed by traders. However, at the same time, Lagarde may make a statement that will cool the ardor of bull traders a little. The fact is that the European Central Bank is very unprofitable for the high rate of the euro currency. It is what Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane (ECB Chief Economist) repeatedly said last year. Thus, the new growth of the European currency should cause concern among the representatives of the ECB. Lagarde can also talk about the prospects for the EU economy. However, she has recently given them a low estimate, comparing the economy to a patient who stands with the help of two crutches (budget and monetary stimulus). However, the rhetoric may have changed in the past few weeks. The EU economy should feel better in the second quarter than in the first. Vaccination of the population continues.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a new rebound from the ascending trend line. However, it failed to show strong growth again. The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator has been canceled. Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2223. Fixing the quotes under the trend line will favor the US currency, and some fall in the direction of the level of 1.1836. In this case, the mood will change from "bullish" to "bearish."
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair closed above the level of 161.8% (1.2027), which allows us to expect continued growth in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% (1.2356). Upward trends are continuing on all charts right now.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On May 17, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were empty, so there was no information background on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - change in GDP (09:00 UTC).
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (14:00 UTC).
On May 19, the calendar of economic events in the United States is again empty. But in the European Union, there will be a speech by Christine Lagarde, which may affect the mood of traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which again showed that speculators actively increased long contracts in the reporting week. A week earlier, the category of "Non-commercial" traders increased both types of contracts. Now the number of longs was 16,908, and the number of short - 5,319. Thus, the mood of the major players again becomes more "bullish," which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the European currency. It is noteworthy that the total number of positions ("Total") is higher for short contracts. However, I remind you that we are more interested in the "Non-commercial" column.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair when it rebounds from the level of 1.2166 on the hourly chart or closing below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2068 and 1.1990. Purchases of the pair were recommended if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the level of 1.2068 or the trend line on the 4-hour chart, with targets of 1.2117 and 1.2166. Both goals have been worked out. New purchases – when breaking the level of 1.2166 with a target of 1.2224.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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