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Today's review of the dollar/franc currency pair will begin with a recent speech by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Thomas Jordan. The main message to the financial markets was the statement of the head of the SNB that there are no prerequisites for tightening monetary policy in the current pandemic situation, which will continue to remain ultra-soft. According to the bank, inflation is still extremely low, and the exchange rate of the Swiss currency is quite high. It is enough to recall that since 2015, the SNB's interest rate has been minus 0.75%, and the Swiss regulator conducts periodic interventions to ensure that the Swiss currency does not strengthen even more. In particular, last year, the SNB spent about 110 billion francs on keeping its national currency growing during the exacerbation of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As you know, the Swiss franc is one of the safe-haven currencies. However, periodic restrictions through interventions often force investors to go to other safe-havens. Another important point that Thomas Jordan mentioned is that negative interest rates cannot be dispensed with yet.
Daily
Nevertheless, despite the traditionally ultra-soft monetary policy of the SNB, market participants have long been accustomed to it, and the franc continues to be in demand as a protective asset. In particular, on the daily chart, the USD/CHF currency pair is trading in a downward trend, although recently there has been consolidation in a fairly narrow price range, which is 0.8929-0.9046. So, at yesterday's trading, the bears on this trading instrument tried to break through the support at 0.8952, where the minimum values were shown on May 21.
Although trading on May 25 closed slightly below this mark, it may be premature to consider its breakdown valid. This option is indicated by the long tail (lower shadow) of yesterday's candle. Today, at the end of this article, the USD/CHF pair is trading without a pronounced price direction but with a slight decline. The most important and key resistance is near the iconic technical and psychological level of 0.9000. As you can see, here are the maximum values of trading on May 24 and the red line of the Kijun Ichimoku indicator, which increases the resistance of sellers near this important mark.
H4
On the four-hour timeframe, the picture for the pair also has a bearish look. It is indicated by the downward trajectory of the price movement and the fact that the pair is trading under all three moving averages used: 50 MA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA. If we go to the trading recommendations for USD/CHF, then the most relevant at this point are sales, which are better to open after a corrective pullback to the price zone 0.8990-0.9005. I recommend that you take a closer look at opening short positions at higher and more favorable prices from the range of 0.9035-0.9050 if the pair can rise to these values. For purchases, you need to be patient and wait for the appropriate signals. Better on higher timeframes. That's all for now.
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